***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 30.4 31.2 31.8 0.9 61.8 59.8 28.8 30.0 31.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 29.7 30.7 32.2 1.4 66.4 64.5 28.1 29.3 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 30.0 30.2 31.9 0.9 60.5 59.4 28.4 29.7 31.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 24.0 24.3 29.3 0.2 55.2 54.4 21.9 23.8 24.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 30.9 30.6 29.0 -0.2 50.3 49.6 29.1 30.5 31.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 29.7 29.6 26.1 -0.3 50.3 48.2 28.2 29.5 30.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 30.8 30.6 32.3 1.5 67.5 65.7 27.9 29.6 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 19.0 18.7 26.8 -0.4 47.6 46.9 17.8 18.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 30.2 30.0 29.2 -0.1 50.0 50.0 29.1 30.0 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 29.9 29.6 27.7 -0.3 49.8 48.4 28.7 29.6 30.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 30.6 30.4 28.6 -0.3 50.3 49.1 28.6 30.3 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 29.8 29.6 28.3 -0.3 49.1 48.5 28.3 29.6 30.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 30.8 30.5 27.4 -0.5 47.0 46.7 29.4 30.5 31.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 29.6 29.6 29.0 0.4 56.0 54.8 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 31.3 31.4 30.5 0.7 58.5 59.3 29.9 31.1 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 31.3 31.0 28.4 -0.2 50.4 50.0 29.7 30.9 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 30.3 30.5 32.0 1.6 68.3 65.8 27.2 28.9 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 28.9 28.9 27.2 -0.1 53.3 50.3 27.2 28.7 29.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 29.2 30.6 32.1 1.4 65.1 63.4 27.6 28.8 30.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 25.3 24.9 24.3 -0.5 47.0 46.4 24.2 25.0 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 30.4 30.3 30.4 0.2 52.8 52.9 29.0 30.2 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 29.3 30.8 31.7 1.5 67.5 64.7 27.6 28.9 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 29.2 30.0 31.7 1.2 62.8 61.7 27.7 28.8 31.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 29.0 29.0 29.0 0.2 55.5 53.8 27.9 28.7 30.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 30.6 30.5 29.6 0.3 53.8 54.8 29.2 30.1 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 30.6 30.5 28.3 0.2 54.9 53.7 28.8 30.3 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 30.1 30.2 30.7 0.8 59.5 59.0 28.4 29.8 30.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 31.2 31.2 29.5 0.3 55.4 54.9 30.1 31.0 32.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 24.9 24.7 26.0 -0.2 52.5 49.2 23.0 24.6 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 29.8 30.7 32.1 1.3 65.1 63.2 28.3 29.4 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------