***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.8 30.5 0.2 52.7 53.8 27.1 28.0 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 29.1 30.1 30.9 0.6 61.3 57.3 27.1 28.4 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.1 28.8 30.6 0.1 51.9 52.2 26.5 28.5 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 23.2 22.7 28.1 -0.3 47.2 48.2 20.2 22.7 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.2 28.0 27.8 -0.7 39.6 43.1 27.4 29.7 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 28.8 28.0 25.1 -0.5 44.2 45.4 26.4 28.1 29.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 28.8 29.9 31.0 0.7 62.7 59.2 27.0 28.1 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 16.0 16.3 25.6 -0.9 38.2 40.8 16.0 17.0 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 29.8 27.5 28.0 -0.7 39.9 43.3 27.1 29.3 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 29.7 27.4 26.4 -0.8 37.8 41.7 27.0 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 29.7 27.6 27.3 -0.7 39.5 43.0 26.8 29.1 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 28.8 26.9 27.0 -0.8 39.4 42.7 26.2 28.2 30.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 30.2 28.2 26.2 -0.9 40.9 42.1 27.6 29.8 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 28.8 27.5 27.7 -0.5 45.8 46.1 26.7 28.0 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 30.9 30.6 29.4 0.2 56.4 54.7 28.0 30.5 31.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 31.2 29.3 27.1 -0.6 43.7 44.3 27.9 30.7 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 28.5 29.7 30.9 0.7 62.8 58.9 26.7 27.8 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.6 26.8 26.0 -0.7 40.7 43.2 26.1 28.0 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.8 30.8 0.4 57.9 55.6 26.7 28.3 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 24.2 22.5 23.1 -1.0 39.1 39.5 22.1 23.3 26.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 29.7 27.8 29.2 -0.5 43.9 45.7 27.0 29.3 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 28.9 30.6 30.5 0.5 62.2 56.7 27.3 28.2 30.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 28.7 28.5 30.4 0.2 53.4 53.4 26.6 27.9 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 29.0 27.0 27.8 -0.4 43.7 46.0 26.4 28.5 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 29.6 27.9 28.4 -0.3 46.2 48.3 26.9 29.1 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 29.6 28.8 27.2 -0.2 47.1 48.4 27.1 29.0 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 28.5 28.5 29.5 0.1 52.8 53.0 26.4 27.9 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 30.9 30.4 28.3 -0.2 49.2 49.1 28.5 30.5 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 23.9 22.6 24.8 -0.8 40.6 42.3 21.4 23.2 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 28.9 29.7 30.8 0.5 59.4 56.2 26.7 28.2 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------