***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 29.3 29.2 29.6 0.1 53.4 52.7 28.0 29.0 29.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 29.4 29.5 30.0 0.5 58.3 56.8 28.0 29.0 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 29.4 29.0 29.5 -0.2 49.2 49.9 28.3 29.1 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 22.5 21.8 26.4 -0.8 42.3 42.4 21.1 22.1 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.3 28.6 26.8 -1.1 36.5 39.0 28.2 30.1 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 26.7 27.0 23.9 -1.3 34.3 34.6 27.0 28.0 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 29.1 30.2 30.3 0.7 61.7 60.5 28.0 28.8 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 15.6 16.1 24.2 -1.4 31.7 34.2 16.3 17.3 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.8 27.8 27.4 -0.9 37.8 40.7 27.5 29.6 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 29.2 27.6 25.3 -1.2 35.2 37.2 27.4 28.8 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 29.9 27.9 26.7 -1.2 35.3 38.2 27.9 29.5 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 26.4 26.9 25.6 -1.3 33.0 35.7 26.9 28.2 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 27.4 27.8 25.7 -1.4 33.0 35.2 27.8 29.4 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 29.0 28.2 27.1 -0.6 42.2 43.4 27.7 28.7 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 30.4 30.2 28.7 -0.2 50.4 48.9 29.5 30.2 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 28.7 28.6 26.2 -1.2 35.6 37.5 28.6 30.5 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 28.7 29.5 30.1 0.8 62.7 60.5 27.4 28.3 29.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.1 27.3 24.6 -1.1 35.7 37.6 27.0 27.8 29.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 28.8 28.4 29.8 0.2 55.3 54.1 27.5 28.4 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 21.2 21.9 22.0 -1.6 30.1 32.3 22.3 23.0 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 29.6 28.8 28.5 -0.7 40.5 42.6 28.0 29.5 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 29.2 29.4 29.6 0.4 57.9 56.6 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 29.0 28.8 29.5 0.1 53.8 53.1 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 28.9 27.6 27.0 -0.7 40.4 42.1 27.3 28.6 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 29.7 29.2 27.8 -0.5 45.3 45.8 28.3 29.4 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 27.7 27.9 25.3 -1.2 33.2 36.0 27.9 28.9 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 29.2 29.0 28.8 0.1 52.7 51.9 28.0 28.9 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 30.5 29.7 27.1 -0.8 42.2 42.3 29.5 30.3 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 21.4 22.4 23.6 -1.3 34.0 35.8 22.3 23.0 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 29.2 29.3 29.9 0.3 56.1 55.2 27.9 28.8 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------