***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 27.8 26.4 27.9 -0.9 36.7 38.6 26.1 27.1 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 28.0 26.8 28.2 -0.7 41.0 41.8 26.5 27.5 28.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 28.1 26.3 27.7 -1.2 34.4 36.2 26.3 27.3 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 19.3 19.3 24.5 -1.5 30.9 31.3 19.4 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 26.2 26.6 25.3 -1.8 29.1 29.1 26.9 27.5 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 25.4 25.0 22.8 -1.7 28.8 29.4 25.2 26.6 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 28.0 27.3 28.5 -0.4 45.4 45.5 26.7 27.5 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 14.6 14.4 22.9 -1.8 29.7 29.9 14.7 16.2 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 26.2 26.5 26.4 -1.5 30.4 32.0 26.7 27.1 28.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 26.0 26.0 24.1 -1.8 29.4 30.4 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 25.9 26.2 25.5 -1.9 28.7 29.3 26.5 27.4 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 25.3 25.8 24.3 -1.7 30.3 30.6 25.8 26.5 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 26.6 26.7 25.0 -1.7 30.1 30.2 26.8 27.8 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 27.5 26.5 26.2 -1.0 35.7 38.1 26.4 26.9 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 29.1 27.8 27.7 -1.0 35.3 36.8 27.7 28.5 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 27.2 27.3 25.0 -1.7 29.7 30.2 27.3 28.6 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 27.6 27.1 28.2 -0.2 47.7 47.3 25.7 27.2 28.0 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 25.2 25.1 23.3 -1.6 32.0 32.7 25.2 26.1 27.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 27.8 26.0 27.9 -0.9 37.6 39.3 26.0 27.1 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 20.8 20.8 21.0 -1.7 29.6 31.0 21.0 22.0 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 26.2 26.3 27.3 -1.5 31.0 32.4 26.4 27.2 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 28.1 27.4 27.9 -0.4 45.1 44.7 26.3 27.7 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 27.8 26.5 27.8 -0.8 38.1 40.0 26.1 27.0 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 27.3 25.9 25.9 -1.3 33.7 35.1 25.9 26.5 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 26.8 26.9 26.4 -1.3 33.2 34.1 26.9 28.0 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 26.2 26.2 23.7 -1.7 29.6 29.5 26.4 27.2 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 28.0 26.2 27.3 -0.9 38.0 38.6 25.9 27.4 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 27.0 27.5 25.6 -1.5 31.2 31.6 27.6 28.4 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 20.5 20.3 22.5 -1.6 31.4 32.5 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 28.0 26.4 28.1 -0.9 38.2 39.3 26.3 27.4 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------