***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 16.1 16.2 19.0 0.4 63.4 62.2 15.3 16.0 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 16.3 16.7 19.1 0.6 69.4 68.5 15.0 15.5 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 17.9 18.5 19.2 0.4 63.1 62.2 17.2 17.7 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.5 16.5 0.1 59.2 57.0 12.7 13.2 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 14.4 14.3 16.4 -0.1 50.2 50.6 13.9 14.3 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 13.2 13.2 14.2 0.1 56.2 55.7 12.8 13.0 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 16.8 16.8 19.3 0.7 71.4 70.4 15.3 16.1 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 8.8 8.7 13.8 -0.1 49.8 48.9 8.3 8.7 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 15.6 15.5 16.5 0.0 53.0 52.1 15.0 15.4 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 15.4 15.5 14.8 0.0 52.0 50.5 15.1 15.3 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.2 15.2 15.9 0.0 51.4 51.1 14.7 15.1 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.2 14.7 -0.1 47.9 48.1 12.7 13.3 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.3 14.4 -0.1 48.8 47.6 13.8 14.3 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 16.1 16.5 16.6 0.3 60.8 59.4 15.4 16.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 17.2 17.2 18.1 0.3 66.5 63.3 16.1 16.9 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 15.8 15.7 15.3 0.0 51.2 50.6 15.3 15.6 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 17.2 17.4 19.0 0.8 75.9 72.6 15.8 16.5 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 13.8 13.8 14.1 0.1 53.3 53.1 13.1 13.7 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 47 53 100 16.2 16.2 19.0 0.5 66.8 66.0 15.1 15.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.8 9.6 11.8 -0.1 45.3 46.5 9.0 9.7 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 15.4 15.3 17.9 0.1 54.2 54.0 14.9 15.3 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 16.1 16.1 18.9 0.6 71.0 69.1 14.8 15.4 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 47 53 100 15.8 15.8 18.8 0.5 65.0 64.2 14.6 15.3 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 15.9 16.2 16.5 0.3 59.9 59.4 15.3 15.7 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 15.6 15.6 17.5 0.1 54.9 54.5 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 14.3 14.3 14.1 0.1 55.5 54.4 13.7 14.2 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 15.7 16.0 18.2 0.3 61.5 60.8 14.7 15.6 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 14.6 14.7 16.8 0.2 59.6 57.2 13.9 14.5 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.1 13.4 0.0 50.5 50.7 12.2 13.1 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 16.6 16.5 19.2 0.5 66.7 66.2 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------