***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 17.3 17.8 20.2 1.0 72.8 67.2 15.6 16.4 17.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 17.2 17.9 20.4 1.4 77.5 71.6 14.6 15.9 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 19.3 19.5 20.4 1.1 72.7 67.1 17.3 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.2 17.6 0.9 71.4 66.6 12.6 14.3 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 15.1 15.7 17.1 0.6 63.0 61.2 13.9 14.8 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.0 15.3 0.6 64.2 62.8 12.8 13.8 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 17.5 18.0 20.6 1.5 78.9 72.5 15.0 16.5 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.6 10.0 14.8 0.5 60.3 59.6 8.6 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.5 17.2 0.5 62.4 60.1 15.1 15.8 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.3 15.6 0.5 60.5 59.2 15.2 15.6 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.8 16.1 16.6 0.6 64.0 62.0 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.1 15.6 0.5 62.3 60.3 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 13.5 15.1 14.9 0.4 57.7 57.1 14.0 14.9 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.5 17.3 17.4 0.7 63.6 61.7 15.4 16.2 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 18.1 18.4 19.0 1.0 76.6 69.1 16.3 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.7 16.0 0.6 62.9 61.7 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 17.9 18.5 20.3 1.4 79.6 72.5 15.8 17.0 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.7 14.8 0.5 62.6 60.6 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 17.1 17.6 20.3 1.3 76.1 70.4 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.8 12.4 0.5 61.7 60.3 9.9 10.5 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 16.2 16.6 18.8 0.6 61.6 61.2 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 16.6 17.4 20.1 1.3 77.4 71.2 14.6 15.5 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 16.6 17.0 20.0 1.2 73.8 68.2 14.7 16.1 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 17.1 17.4 17.2 0.7 68.0 63.0 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 16.4 17.0 18.5 0.8 67.0 63.8 14.9 16.2 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 15.5 15.8 14.9 0.7 69.2 63.2 13.9 14.5 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 16.3 17.6 19.3 1.0 71.5 66.4 14.9 15.9 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 15.7 15.4 17.9 0.9 72.2 66.9 14.6 14.9 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 14.0 14.0 14.2 0.5 62.4 60.3 12.7 13.8 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 17.5 18.2 20.6 1.3 77.1 70.3 15.0 16.4 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------