***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 16.8 16.8 19.6 0.8 69.8 63.4 15.4 16.1 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 16.8 16.9 19.8 1.0 72.6 66.5 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 18.8 19.0 19.8 0.7 67.2 62.9 17.0 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 13.6 13.9 17.0 0.4 56.7 56.6 12.2 13.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.7 16.6 0.1 53.9 52.8 14.1 14.7 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 13.5 13.7 14.8 0.3 53.8 55.3 12.7 13.3 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 17.2 17.2 20.0 1.0 73.3 67.5 15.4 16.4 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.3 14.3 0.1 52.3 52.7 8.5 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.2 16.7 0.1 55.0 52.6 15.5 15.9 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.8 15.2 0.1 53.7 52.1 15.0 15.4 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.9 16.1 0.2 55.5 53.7 14.4 15.5 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.0 15.2 0.2 52.2 53.8 12.8 13.9 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.1 14.5 0.2 48.7 52.3 14.1 15.1 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.8 16.9 0.4 60.9 58.4 15.7 16.5 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 17.5 18.0 18.5 0.5 61.6 60.7 16.0 17.3 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 16.3 16.3 15.6 0.2 53.2 54.0 15.4 16.2 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 17.5 17.6 19.7 1.1 74.5 67.7 15.8 16.9 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 14.4 14.4 14.4 0.2 56.1 54.0 13.5 14.2 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 16.8 16.8 19.6 0.8 71.1 65.0 15.1 16.3 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 10.5 10.4 12.0 0.0 54.2 51.4 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.0 18.3 0.3 58.5 55.8 15.1 15.8 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 16.3 16.5 19.4 0.9 73.7 65.7 14.9 15.8 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 16.0 16.1 19.3 0.7 68.6 63.2 14.6 15.5 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.4 16.7 0.4 62.3 58.7 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.8 16.1 17.9 0.5 61.8 59.5 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 14.8 14.8 14.5 0.4 53.9 56.2 13.8 14.7 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 16.5 16.2 18.8 0.7 68.1 62.5 14.8 15.7 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 15.3 15.3 17.3 0.3 55.7 55.8 13.8 15.2 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.4 13.7 0.1 54.4 52.9 11.9 12.9 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 17.0 16.9 19.9 0.9 71.3 65.9 15.4 16.3 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------