***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 15.7 16.0 18.8 0.3 57.8 58.0 14.9 15.5 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.9 18.8 0.5 66.3 61.3 14.5 15.8 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 18.1 18.0 19.0 0.3 58.2 56.7 16.3 17.8 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 13.3 13.1 16.3 0.1 54.1 53.2 12.2 13.0 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 14.4 14.1 16.4 0.0 50.1 50.0 12.7 14.1 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 13.1 12.8 13.9 0.0 50.5 50.7 11.8 12.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 17.0 16.8 19.1 0.6 67.6 63.3 14.9 16.3 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.5 8.0 13.6 -0.2 45.7 46.0 7.4 8.1 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 15.2 15.1 16.5 0.1 52.8 51.8 14.2 14.9 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 15.2 14.9 14.7 -0.1 49.2 49.1 13.8 14.9 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 15.1 14.8 15.8 0.0 49.0 50.0 13.5 14.9 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.3 12.8 14.6 -0.2 45.5 46.2 11.3 13.0 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 14.1 13.8 14.5 0.0 49.4 49.9 12.8 13.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 16.1 16.3 16.5 0.3 57.3 57.7 14.5 15.9 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 16.5 17.1 18.1 0.4 60.4 59.7 15.5 16.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 15.5 15.1 15.3 0.0 50.0 50.6 14.1 15.1 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 17.8 17.7 18.8 0.8 70.1 65.6 16.0 17.0 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 14.0 13.9 14.1 0.0 52.8 51.3 12.1 13.8 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 15.8 16.4 18.8 0.4 63.3 59.5 14.9 15.6 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.3 8.7 11.8 -0.2 45.7 45.7 8.1 9.0 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 15.4 15.3 17.8 0.1 52.4 52.4 13.8 15.2 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 45 55 100 16.1 16.0 18.8 0.6 67.0 63.1 14.3 15.1 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 15.5 15.7 18.6 0.4 60.9 59.6 14.1 15.3 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 15.6 15.9 16.5 0.3 56.7 56.4 14.6 15.4 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 15.4 15.7 17.4 0.1 55.2 53.8 14.0 15.2 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 14.2 14.0 13.9 0.0 49.6 51.2 13.1 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 15.6 16.1 18.1 0.3 58.1 57.7 14.2 15.4 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 14.4 14.3 16.7 0.2 54.5 54.1 12.7 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.1 12.7 13.2 -0.1 49.7 48.9 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 16.4 17.0 19.0 0.4 62.9 59.5 15.0 16.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------