***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 13.9 14.6 17.2 -0.9 32.9 34.3 14.6 15.2 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.1 13.8 17.3 -0.6 41.6 40.2 13.6 14.5 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 17.4 16.3 17.5 -0.8 36.9 36.6 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 10.9 11.0 15.0 -0.9 31.4 32.8 11.1 11.9 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 12.8 13.1 15.5 -0.8 33.8 33.7 13.0 13.9 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.1 12.9 -0.7 33.7 34.5 12.0 12.6 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 15.5 14.9 17.5 -0.6 42.9 41.5 14.6 15.1 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.0 7.3 12.6 -0.8 31.6 32.9 7.3 8.0 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.3 14.5 15.7 -0.7 36.6 36.6 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.3 13.8 -0.7 36.0 35.4 14.1 15.2 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 13.9 14.1 15.1 -0.7 34.5 34.5 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 11.6 11.8 13.6 -0.9 29.5 31.4 11.8 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 12.7 13.2 13.8 -0.9 30.6 30.8 13.3 14.0 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.5 15.5 -0.5 42.0 40.6 15.0 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.8 15.8 17.0 -0.7 36.8 37.0 15.7 16.7 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 14.2 14.0 14.5 -0.9 30.1 31.5 14.2 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 15.9 15.5 17.2 -0.4 46.2 44.5 14.9 15.6 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.6 12.9 13.3 -0.6 38.5 38.2 12.4 13.4 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.2 14.3 17.2 -0.7 38.2 38.6 14.2 14.7 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.9 8.7 11.2 -0.8 30.5 32.5 8.8 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.1 16.8 -0.8 35.6 34.5 13.7 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 14.9 14.4 17.3 -0.5 44.3 43.4 13.9 14.6 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.1 14.0 17.2 -0.7 37.3 38.9 13.6 14.8 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.0 15.6 -0.5 43.2 41.8 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 13.4 13.2 16.1 -1.2 28.1 28.1 13.8 15.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 12.9 12.9 12.9 -0.8 31.8 33.0 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 13.7 13.5 16.7 -0.9 33.0 33.3 13.5 14.5 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 13.2 13.5 15.5 -0.8 32.6 33.8 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.3 11.1 12.4 -0.7 34.8 35.1 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.7 17.5 -0.8 38.3 37.8 14.5 15.0 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------