***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 0.0 24.7 72.1 46.3 38.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 52.2 43.8 24.5 66.8 42.7 36.1 29.4 47.3 58.7 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 25.7 37.9 24.2 67.3 43.5 35.7 28.9 41.2 53.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 29.9 49.5 25.1 70.3 46.2 36.1 36.3 51.7 69.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 23.6 35.4 24.0 66.1 45.9 34.4 29.1 37.0 71.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 30.1 48.9 35.4 79.0 48.7 41.0 37.2 52.3 74.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 23.9 32.9 25.2 69.8 42.7 36.7 22.5 35.6 52.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 49.4 68.2 26.2 67.3 44.2 36.6 54.5 71.0 92.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 22.1 35.3 24.2 64.7 47.2 33.8 28.4 39.7 55.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 36.3 54.3 27.4 64.4 44.0 34.3 42.8 57.6 82.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 25.5 38.2 21.0 65.7 47.0 35.9 26.8 41.7 57.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 31.3 51.7 20.6 68.7 45.5 38.1 36.9 58.8 72.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 22.8 41.6 25.7 73.1 48.0 39.6 25.6 42.0 52.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 35.6 51.7 28.7 61.2 39.5 31.9 44.3 62.0 89.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 13.7 18.4 23.9 76.6 48.3 39.0 16.3 18.5 45.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 21.4 36.4 23.3 69.5 44.6 37.5 27.8 40.1 46.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 27.7 35.1 24.0 64.2 40.3 35.2 33.7 36.7 58.9 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 38.4 50.8 33.0 64.6 38.9 33.8 49.4 53.8 67.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 31.4 38.0 23.9 64.5 42.4 34.9 33.0 51.6 68.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 37.8 47.6 35.6 69.8 42.2 36.0 45.4 48.5 63.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 18.0 35.0 23.0 68.1 48.1 35.4 31.8 35.2 51.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 31.9 35.9 24.0 62.5 37.7 33.0 34.9 50.3 69.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 30.1 37.6 23.7 62.1 38.9 33.0 34.5 45.9 53.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 32.4 46.5 28.8 64.0 41.0 33.7 40.0 50.7 65.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 25.3 37.9 29.4 71.7 48.5 35.4 26.8 38.4 54.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 20.8 40.2 21.5 77.6 52.0 41.8 21.6 38.0 50.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 23.9 32.8 29.6 73.6 45.8 37.4 24.5 38.4 62.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 24.4 28.6 23.9 73.2 44.8 37.7 23.6 37.8 61.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 55.1 66.9 34.2 66.9 40.1 34.2 61.4 70.7 89.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 27.1 34.7 24.8 69.0 43.3 36.8 25.1 36.8 50.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------