***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.0 73.2 64.1 44.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 6.3 18.1 5.0 68.8 63.7 44.1 3.3 14.4 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.3 14.7 4.4 72.8 67.0 44.7 1.7 6.7 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 2.7 9.2 3.6 68.1 63.1 41.1 1.5 6.8 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.7 13.0 4.0 77.1 67.0 42.3 1.6 6.4 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.0 10.0 5.5 72.3 63.4 41.6 1.9 6.6 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 4.7 14.3 4.9 69.7 61.4 42.6 0.7 10.9 21.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 3.1 14.3 4.8 78.8 62.9 41.4 1.7 7.3 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.1 19.8 4.4 80.7 70.3 42.0 1.4 7.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 4.4 18.6 5.1 79.4 64.3 40.9 3.4 10.6 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 1.2 12.2 3.8 80.0 64.6 42.8 0.3 3.0 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 1.9 11.3 3.6 80.9 68.8 44.7 0.4 4.0 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 1.8 9.2 4.2 78.0 64.1 43.4 1.1 4.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 1.5 14.2 5.9 78.1 66.6 44.0 0.5 3.8 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.1 4.2 2.7 59.5 61.0 41.4 0.0 2.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.1 8.7 3.9 76.7 62.4 42.7 2.3 6.5 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.1 14.1 4.6 62.3 61.8 44.6 2.3 6.7 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 3.0 9.8 6.5 80.0 61.8 41.0 2.2 7.6 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.6 18.9 4.9 69.7 66.0 44.7 1.5 8.0 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 3.8 10.4 6.9 80.7 55.5 40.3 4.6 9.7 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 1.5 19.1 3.6 72.5 68.2 43.9 0.3 3.5 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.5 7.9 4.9 64.7 65.0 46.2 1.7 5.5 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 1.3 13.0 4.8 72.2 68.3 45.1 0.4 3.0 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 3.6 14.4 5.7 78.2 66.7 42.5 2.3 9.4 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 1.7 11.8 4.6 72.6 63.1 42.7 0.3 4.1 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.8 11.9 3.6 83.5 67.6 46.7 1.7 7.7 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 1.2 12.9 5.0 76.5 64.6 43.3 0.8 2.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.1 7.4 3.3 67.1 62.0 41.4 0.4 4.8 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 6.6 20.3 6.5 78.5 58.0 39.8 3.8 15.3 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.9 10.8 4.9 71.3 65.4 43.8 1.6 4.2 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------