***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.9 104.7 67.2 46.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 1.7 9.9 5.7 94.7 67.1 43.3 1.0 4.3 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.1 15.4 6.0 98.7 65.5 44.9 0.5 4.5 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.5 30.4 8.1 127.9 75.7 48.0 1.1 5.4 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 1.7 14.6 7.5 119.6 71.6 47.3 0.3 3.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.1 21.3 13.2 130.2 70.7 49.2 0.7 7.0 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.0 13.5 5.8 97.2 67.4 44.2 1.7 7.0 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 18.0 21.8 8.8 119.7 67.1 49.0 3.0 10.5 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 7.1 13.2 7.0 108.4 68.4 45.9 0.2 1.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.8 8.5 107.4 63.4 46.7 0.6 6.7 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.4 24.9 7.1 132.5 71.5 49.2 0.6 2.8 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 1.0 17.7 7.2 140.0 72.8 49.0 0.0 2.0 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 1.2 16.0 9.3 142.7 75.2 49.6 0.4 2.8 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.5 12.0 6.6 78.6 59.4 41.2 1.9 9.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.0 13.1 7.7 145.6 78.1 52.4 0.8 6.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 1.2 11.1 8.4 143.9 75.1 49.4 0.3 2.5 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.9 19.7 5.8 92.2 68.6 45.3 2.8 7.2 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.0 9.3 9.5 91.7 60.7 43.9 2.3 6.1 20.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.8 12.8 5.5 90.0 63.9 41.9 1.9 7.4 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.9 12.9 11.7 105.6 65.3 47.6 3.4 8.3 13.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.0 17.6 6.1 110.9 69.7 49.2 0.5 8.6 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.1 20.2 5.5 83.9 63.2 41.7 3.9 7.0 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 1.9 11.8 5.3 83.7 61.9 41.4 1.4 4.9 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.0 12.3 7.5 88.7 60.9 43.3 1.2 10.4 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.6 21.1 8.1 114.1 71.3 47.5 0.1 7.6 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.7 23.2 7.5 141.8 77.0 51.3 1.6 6.1 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.1 14.2 7.5 110.1 69.3 47.1 1.8 4.5 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.8 26.5 8.1 142.7 76.9 50.5 2.2 5.6 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.3 22.7 9.8 93.7 62.2 45.2 8.8 14.6 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.0 12.6 5.8 97.1 68.1 43.3 3.2 5.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------