***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 7.7 86.0 65.7 47.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.5 6.7 70.8 60.0 44.7 2.2 6.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.0 12.4 7.6 81.6 65.7 47.5 1.1 7.2 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 1.7 10.5 7.6 81.8 68.1 44.8 0.5 4.2 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 1.2 8.7 7.2 73.4 64.5 45.7 0.9 2.6 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 1.8 8.3 11.6 84.2 62.8 44.1 1.4 3.9 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.3 6.6 69.9 60.3 44.7 0.8 3.6 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 3.0 8.8 7.6 74.1 60.2 42.9 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 0.4 6.2 7.5 72.4 63.2 43.5 0.1 1.0 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 1.7 5.7 8.1 71.9 59.2 43.1 0.9 3.9 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 0.7 5.2 5.9 68.0 62.3 44.8 0.2 1.5 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 1.1 9.6 5.9 70.7 64.7 45.3 0.0 2.5 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 0.2 2.1 8.0 74.2 61.4 46.1 0.0 0.6 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 1.8 13.3 9.4 78.7 62.0 45.3 1.1 4.0 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 0.9 8.2 7.9 106.0 72.5 47.7 0.5 1.9 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 1.1 4.2 6.8 68.8 62.1 43.5 0.8 2.5 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.5 6.1 6.0 63.0 58.5 43.3 2.0 3.8 8.8 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 2.3 8.4 10.1 74.0 57.8 43.3 0.8 4.9 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.3 7.0 73.0 59.5 43.7 1.7 5.8 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 2.1 6.7 10.6 75.6 58.0 43.2 2.1 4.8 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 4.7 7.3 7.5 85.4 68.3 47.5 0.1 2.3 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.6 4.6 6.7 67.4 56.9 43.3 1.5 4.0 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.6 7.4 75.3 58.8 43.2 0.6 7.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.4 10.5 9.1 77.1 60.7 43.9 0.8 4.9 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.3 9.4 86.9 67.8 46.0 1.0 6.4 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 0.2 3.3 6.5 78.9 67.3 46.5 0.0 0.3 3.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.5 10.1 9.2 86.0 65.6 47.6 1.3 6.2 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.2 10.0 7.3 87.3 69.2 45.6 0.4 2.8 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 4.8 15.2 10.9 79.3 57.7 42.9 4.5 11.1 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.7 6.7 7.2 75.5 62.0 46.9 1.2 4.3 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------