***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.0 49.7 46.4 36.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.9 5.5 7.0 50.9 46.4 37.7 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 2.4 4.0 6.3 43.1 42.2 32.9 2.1 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 2.9 6.0 5.9 39.6 41.1 28.3 3.1 11.0 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 3.4 6.4 5.2 35.0 36.2 25.4 4.4 8.8 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 2.6 5.0 5.1 38.7 38.6 29.3 3.9 8.7 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.7 4.8 7.9 57.6 46.8 40.3 2.7 5.1 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 10.7 19.6 5.0 32.9 35.5 24.9 16.3 26.9 37.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 2.1 4.4 5.3 35.0 37.6 27.7 4.3 7.0 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 4.1 8.7 5.7 33.7 37.3 26.5 7.8 15.0 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 2.7 3.0 4.3 32.3 36.4 25.3 2.8 10.8 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 4.1 10.6 4.0 32.8 39.2 25.6 7.3 16.5 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 2.8 6.7 4.1 33.4 38.9 24.9 5.4 10.2 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 4.1 6.1 6.8 35.9 35.1 29.0 5.9 9.0 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 1.6 3.5 5.6 40.5 43.7 32.2 1.3 4.6 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 2.6 6.0 4.2 32.9 36.6 25.1 5.2 13.0 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.0 4.7 7.6 53.7 48.0 39.5 3.1 5.8 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 6.5 13.0 6.8 36.2 35.2 27.4 11.4 18.1 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 5.0 8.1 6.5 45.6 42.3 35.3 5.1 9.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 5.0 12.2 6.4 36.6 34.6 25.1 11.0 15.4 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 4.2 7.6 5.8 40.0 42.8 31.7 4.9 9.5 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 4.6 5.2 7.0 48.4 40.9 35.4 2.8 9.0 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.2 5.5 6.2 40.4 39.5 31.8 4.1 10.2 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 4.9 8.7 6.5 37.3 36.2 29.7 6.8 11.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 2.3 5.1 7.3 43.5 43.1 32.1 2.4 6.7 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 2.0 4.9 3.8 39.2 37.7 25.1 4.1 8.4 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.7 5.8 7.9 49.1 46.5 35.6 3.1 6.6 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 1.9 3.7 5.3 38.4 40.6 29.6 1.5 6.4 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 10.9 13.8 7.0 37.5 33.9 26.6 13.8 18.3 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.8 5.8 6.9 50.9 45.6 37.2 3.1 6.6 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------