***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 9999.0 0.0 31.3 2.6 96.0 88.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 30.0 31.1 31.6 2.8 95.8 89.6 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 30.2 31.5 31.7 2.9 97.0 90.7 28.4 29.0 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 23.3 24.3 29.6 2.2 93.8 85.1 21.8 22.2 22.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 30.4 32.1 29.8 2.5 96.0 87.9 28.7 29.7 30.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 29.0 30.8 27.4 2.5 94.4 89.6 27.4 28.2 28.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 29.9 31.0 31.2 2.5 95.5 88.0 28.2 28.8 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 18.4 20.2 28.1 2.8 96.0 90.9 16.7 17.1 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 5 95 100 30.2 31.6 30.3 2.7 97.1 89.7 28.5 29.2 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 30.0 31.5 28.8 2.8 96.6 90.4 27.9 29.0 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 30.2 32.0 29.5 2.7 96.2 90.9 28.4 29.1 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 29.2 31.6 29.3 2.8 96.2 91.8 27.4 28.2 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 5 95 100 30.3 32.0 28.8 2.7 94.9 91.1 28.4 29.7 30.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 29.6 30.5 29.4 2.6 96.4 88.8 27.9 28.8 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 31.0 31.8 30.5 2.1 93.1 85.4 29.7 30.1 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 31.0 32.5 29.3 2.6 94.8 90.4 29.4 30.4 30.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 29.5 30.7 30.9 2.5 94.6 87.6 27.7 28.4 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 28.7 30.5 27.8 2.8 96.4 90.1 27.3 27.9 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 29.5 30.7 31.8 3.0 96.5 90.9 27.7 28.6 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 24.7 26.4 25.7 2.7 96.0 90.0 23.0 23.4 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 30.1 31.3 31.0 2.6 97.0 88.2 28.6 29.1 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 29.8 30.9 30.8 2.4 93.8 87.1 27.8 28.8 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 29.7 30.7 31.6 3.1 97.0 92.0 28.2 28.7 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 29.2 31.1 29.5 2.7 97.0 90.1 27.6 28.7 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 30.2 31.1 29.7 2.2 96.6 85.2 28.9 29.8 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 30.1 31.4 28.8 2.6 94.6 90.1 28.4 29.0 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 29.7 30.5 30.3 2.3 95.4 85.5 28.3 28.9 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 30.9 31.8 30.0 2.1 92.4 85.1 29.6 30.0 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 24.1 25.8 26.8 2.7 96.5 89.7 22.6 23.3 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 29.7 30.7 31.7 2.8 96.0 89.8 28.0 29.1 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------