***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 0.0 32.1 2.5 85.9 73.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 30.9 32.4 32.4 2.8 86.0 74.0 28.1 29.3 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 31.4 32.7 32.3 2.6 85.5 74.2 28.4 29.7 31.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 24.8 25.6 30.2 1.9 81.0 70.7 21.9 23.8 24.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 32.1 33.0 30.3 2.2 84.1 72.4 29.1 30.5 31.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 30.6 31.6 27.7 2.1 87.9 73.6 28.2 29.5 30.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 31.1 32.3 32.2 2.7 85.1 74.1 27.9 29.6 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 19.8 20.4 28.5 2.3 88.1 74.2 17.8 18.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 31.4 32.3 30.6 2.4 85.4 73.4 29.1 30.0 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 30.8 32.5 29.2 2.4 86.7 74.1 28.7 29.6 30.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 31.6 32.9 30.0 2.4 88.9 74.8 28.6 30.3 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 30.6 31.5 29.7 2.3 89.1 74.5 28.3 29.6 30.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 31.8 32.6 29.1 2.2 88.1 73.2 29.4 30.5 31.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 30.9 31.9 30.1 2.5 83.8 72.5 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 32.2 32.8 30.9 1.9 82.7 72.2 29.9 31.1 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 32.6 33.6 29.6 2.2 88.0 73.5 29.7 30.9 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 30.5 31.4 31.9 2.6 82.5 73.6 27.2 28.9 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 29.7 31.1 28.3 2.5 85.5 73.5 27.2 28.7 29.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 30.9 32.4 32.6 2.8 87.4 74.2 27.6 28.8 30.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 26.2 27.1 26.0 2.2 86.1 72.3 24.2 25.0 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 31.6 32.7 31.5 2.3 83.7 72.9 29.0 30.2 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 30.9 31.9 31.8 2.6 82.0 72.7 27.6 28.9 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 31.0 32.4 32.2 2.8 88.5 74.6 27.7 28.8 31.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 30.6 31.6 30.2 2.5 84.6 73.8 27.9 28.7 30.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 32.0 33.1 30.4 2.2 85.9 72.3 29.2 30.1 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 31.3 32.0 28.9 1.9 86.0 71.5 28.8 30.3 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 31.3 32.8 31.1 2.3 86.1 72.8 28.4 29.8 30.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 32.1 32.7 30.5 1.8 82.2 70.9 30.1 31.0 32.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 25.7 26.4 27.2 2.4 85.2 73.0 23.0 24.6 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 31.2 33.0 32.5 2.7 87.2 74.2 28.3 29.4 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------