***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 0.0 30.8 1.6 77.4 67.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 30.7 31.4 31.3 2.1 78.1 72.1 27.1 28.4 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 30.7 31.3 31.2 1.9 79.0 70.9 26.5 28.5 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 24.2 24.1 29.1 1.0 70.8 62.4 20.2 22.7 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 31.4 32.1 29.1 1.3 76.0 66.2 27.4 29.7 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 28.8 30.4 26.6 1.1 74.1 62.3 26.4 28.1 29.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 30.4 31.1 31.0 1.9 77.1 70.2 27.0 28.1 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 19.3 20.2 27.3 1.5 75.4 66.4 16.0 17.0 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 30.9 31.3 29.5 1.6 76.7 68.7 27.1 29.3 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 30.8 31.2 28.1 1.6 76.2 68.0 27.0 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 31.0 31.5 28.8 1.6 78.3 68.2 26.8 29.1 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 30.1 30.9 28.5 1.5 77.5 66.9 26.2 28.2 30.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 31.2 31.9 27.9 1.3 78.8 64.8 27.6 29.8 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 30.7 30.7 29.0 1.8 75.7 69.5 26.7 28.0 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 31.9 32.2 29.7 1.0 70.7 62.3 28.0 30.5 31.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 32.3 33.0 28.4 1.3 78.1 65.5 27.9 30.7 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 30.0 30.4 30.8 2.0 75.5 70.8 26.7 27.8 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 30.3 31.0 27.2 1.6 76.0 67.6 26.1 28.0 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 30.4 31.0 31.5 2.3 78.9 73.1 26.7 28.3 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 25.7 26.9 24.9 1.3 74.4 64.3 22.1 23.3 26.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 30.7 31.0 30.3 1.5 76.7 67.8 27.0 29.3 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 30.4 31.1 30.7 2.0 75.9 71.3 27.3 28.2 30.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 30.5 31.2 31.2 2.3 79.8 73.6 26.6 27.9 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 30.4 30.6 29.0 1.8 76.9 69.6 26.4 28.5 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 30.8 31.0 29.2 1.3 73.8 65.2 26.9 29.1 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 29.6 31.5 27.9 1.1 76.0 61.8 27.1 29.0 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 30.0 30.7 29.8 1.4 75.2 66.0 26.4 27.9 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 31.9 31.8 29.3 0.9 70.6 61.4 28.5 30.5 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 25.5 26.3 26.0 1.5 75.1 66.2 21.4 23.2 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 30.7 31.4 31.4 2.0 79.1 71.6 26.7 28.2 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------