***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 0.0 30.1 1.4 72.9 66.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 30.4 31.1 30.3 1.7 77.4 68.0 28.0 29.0 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 30.3 30.8 30.4 1.8 77.1 69.6 28.3 29.1 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 23.1 23.2 28.6 1.2 69.0 64.3 21.1 22.1 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 30.7 30.9 28.7 1.5 73.2 67.7 28.2 30.1 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 29.1 29.6 26.6 1.9 77.0 70.8 27.0 28.0 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 30.0 30.7 29.9 1.4 72.1 65.5 28.0 28.8 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 18.4 18.9 27.2 2.0 79.4 72.3 16.3 17.3 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 30.2 30.4 29.0 1.7 74.7 69.2 27.5 29.6 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 29.9 30.4 27.7 1.9 77.5 71.0 27.4 28.8 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 30.6 31.0 28.5 1.9 78.9 71.6 27.9 29.5 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 29.3 29.8 28.4 2.1 79.8 72.9 26.9 28.2 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 30.7 31.5 27.8 2.0 79.3 71.8 27.8 29.4 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 29.9 30.5 28.1 1.5 74.2 67.3 27.7 28.7 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 31.0 31.2 29.3 1.2 70.2 64.7 29.5 30.2 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 31.6 32.0 28.2 1.9 77.7 71.0 28.6 30.5 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 29.8 30.3 29.6 1.3 72.4 65.2 27.4 28.3 29.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 28.9 29.3 26.8 1.9 78.1 70.4 27.0 27.8 29.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 29.8 30.5 30.5 1.9 79.3 69.8 27.5 28.4 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 24.8 25.5 24.8 1.9 80.2 71.4 22.3 23.0 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 30.1 30.2 29.7 1.5 72.7 67.4 28.0 29.5 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 30.2 30.7 29.5 1.4 71.7 65.2 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 30.1 30.9 30.2 2.0 78.8 71.1 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 30.0 30.4 28.4 1.7 76.4 69.5 27.3 28.6 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 30.4 30.5 28.5 1.2 70.9 64.6 28.3 29.4 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 30.1 30.8 28.0 1.9 79.3 71.1 27.9 28.9 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 29.9 30.1 29.0 1.2 70.3 64.3 28.0 28.9 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 30.9 31.1 28.9 1.2 70.3 64.8 29.5 30.3 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 24.4 25.0 25.7 1.8 77.8 70.0 22.3 23.0 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 30.0 30.7 30.5 1.7 77.2 68.7 27.9 28.8 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------