***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 9999.0 0.0 32.4 4.8 99.6 95.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 30.1 33.2 32.2 4.7 98.4 93.9 26.5 27.5 28.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 30.5 33.3 32.8 5.2 99.9 95.7 26.3 27.3 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 23.1 27.2 30.5 4.6 100.0 95.1 19.4 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 30.7 34.5 31.1 4.9 100.0 95.2 26.9 27.5 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 29.3 31.9 28.6 4.9 99.9 96.3 25.2 26.6 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 30.1 32.8 31.8 4.2 97.0 92.0 26.7 27.5 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 18.0 21.8 29.4 5.4 100.0 96.1 14.7 16.2 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 30.2 33.8 32.0 5.1 100.0 95.7 26.7 27.1 28.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 29.8 33.0 30.3 5.3 100.0 95.7 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 29.8 33.6 30.9 5.1 100.0 95.6 26.5 27.4 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 29.0 32.9 30.5 5.4 100.0 96.5 25.8 26.5 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 30.3 34.2 30.5 5.4 100.0 96.9 26.8 27.8 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 29.7 31.6 30.4 4.5 99.1 93.1 26.4 26.9 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 31.0 35.0 32.2 4.4 99.4 95.2 27.7 28.5 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 30.7 35.3 30.8 5.1 100.0 96.3 27.3 28.6 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 7 93 100 29.6 32.3 31.1 3.9 95.7 89.7 25.7 27.2 28.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 29.0 32.5 29.0 5.1 99.6 94.6 25.2 26.1 27.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 29.8 32.8 32.5 5.0 99.2 95.3 26.0 27.1 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 24.7 28.0 27.2 5.4 100.0 95.7 21.0 22.0 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 30.2 33.4 32.4 4.8 100.0 94.3 26.4 27.2 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 29.8 32.7 31.0 3.9 95.2 89.5 26.3 27.7 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 30.4 32.3 32.6 5.3 99.8 96.2 26.1 27.0 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 29.6 32.2 30.6 4.8 99.4 93.9 25.9 26.5 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 30.5 33.4 30.8 4.2 99.1 92.8 26.9 28.0 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 29.7 32.3 30.2 5.4 99.4 97.1 26.4 27.2 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 30.0 32.4 31.2 4.1 98.0 92.2 25.9 27.4 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 31.3 35.3 31.2 4.5 99.8 95.1 27.6 28.4 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 23.9 27.5 28.1 5.1 99.6 94.6 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 30.0 33.4 32.6 4.8 98.9 94.7 26.3 27.4 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------