***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 9999.0 0.0 20.3 1.8 89.0 74.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 17.5 18.7 20.7 2.0 88.8 74.8 14.6 15.9 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 19.7 20.7 20.4 1.9 88.8 75.7 17.3 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 15.2 15.3 17.9 1.0 75.4 66.9 12.6 14.3 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 16.0 16.5 17.9 1.2 79.7 70.7 13.9 14.8 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 14.6 14.7 15.9 1.1 77.3 68.5 12.8 13.8 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 17.7 18.7 20.6 1.8 88.0 74.1 15.0 16.5 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 10.4 11.1 16.2 1.4 83.5 72.9 8.6 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 17.2 17.9 18.3 1.5 84.9 74.2 15.1 15.8 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 17.1 17.7 16.7 1.4 82.8 72.8 15.2 15.6 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 16.6 17.1 17.6 1.4 83.5 72.4 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 14.7 15.2 17.1 1.4 83.0 72.9 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 15.8 16.0 16.1 1.0 75.1 68.2 14.0 14.9 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 17.5 18.1 18.3 1.5 80.8 72.9 15.4 16.2 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 18.3 18.2 18.8 1.0 75.9 66.8 16.3 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 17.5 18.2 17.0 1.1 78.8 69.0 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 18.0 19.0 19.9 1.7 85.5 72.5 15.8 17.0 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 15.2 15.7 15.8 1.3 82.6 72.3 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 17.3 18.2 20.6 2.1 89.4 75.9 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 11.3 11.9 14.3 1.3 82.5 71.6 9.9 10.5 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 17.3 17.8 19.4 1.6 85.3 73.8 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 16.9 17.8 19.8 1.7 85.2 72.7 14.6 15.5 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 16.8 17.7 20.3 2.1 90.4 76.8 14.7 16.1 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 17.3 17.7 18.0 1.5 83.9 73.7 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 17.2 18.3 18.5 1.5 85.6 73.1 14.9 16.2 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 15.6 16.0 16.2 1.0 74.6 67.8 13.9 14.5 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 17.4 18.2 19.3 1.6 85.5 73.5 14.9 15.9 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 15.8 15.5 18.3 0.9 73.5 65.4 14.6 14.9 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 14.6 15.0 15.3 1.3 80.1 71.4 12.7 13.8 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 17.8 18.8 20.8 2.0 89.9 75.4 15.0 16.4 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------