***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 0.0 19.5 1.0 71.6 63.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 16.7 16.9 19.8 1.2 73.4 66.6 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 18.7 19.2 19.7 1.2 72.8 66.7 17.0 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.7 14.5 17.5 0.6 65.5 59.8 12.2 13.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 15.3 15.1 17.4 0.8 68.7 63.0 14.1 14.7 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 14.2 14.2 15.6 0.7 67.7 62.1 12.7 13.3 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 17.1 17.2 19.8 1.0 72.6 64.3 15.4 16.4 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 10.0 10.2 15.6 1.0 71.8 65.8 8.5 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 16.4 16.4 17.8 1.0 72.3 65.0 15.5 15.9 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 16.3 16.6 16.1 1.0 72.9 65.7 15.0 15.4 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 16.1 16.3 17.1 1.1 72.8 66.5 14.4 15.5 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 14.4 14.5 16.6 1.1 73.9 67.1 12.8 13.9 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 15.4 15.5 15.9 0.9 72.3 64.6 14.1 15.1 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.7 17.1 17.6 1.0 69.3 64.1 15.7 16.5 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 18.0 18.3 18.7 0.8 71.1 63.0 16.0 17.3 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 16.6 16.7 16.7 0.9 73.2 64.8 15.4 16.2 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.4 19.1 0.9 67.9 62.8 15.8 16.9 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 14.8 14.8 15.4 1.0 72.0 65.5 13.5 14.2 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 16.8 16.9 19.8 1.3 74.6 68.5 15.1 16.3 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 10.8 10.7 13.6 0.8 67.4 62.6 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.4 18.7 0.9 69.8 62.8 15.1 15.8 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 15.9 16.5 19.1 1.0 67.3 64.2 14.9 15.8 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 16.0 16.3 19.6 1.4 76.8 70.1 14.6 15.5 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 16.9 17.2 17.5 1.1 73.1 66.1 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 16.3 16.4 17.9 0.7 67.5 60.4 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 15.2 15.3 15.9 0.8 74.1 63.0 13.8 14.7 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 16.5 16.2 18.6 0.8 69.3 61.1 14.8 15.7 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 15.5 15.7 18.0 0.7 68.3 60.6 13.8 15.2 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 14.2 14.7 14.8 0.9 70.8 64.5 11.9 12.9 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 16.9 16.9 20.0 1.2 74.4 66.8 15.4 16.3 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------