***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 0.0 21.2 3.6 98.0 96.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 17.2 19.4 20.6 3.1 95.8 94.4 13.6 14.5 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 19.1 21.3 21.4 3.9 100.0 98.2 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 14.2 17.2 19.2 3.3 98.7 96.5 11.1 11.9 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 15.7 17.4 19.4 3.5 99.9 98.1 13.0 13.9 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 13.8 16.2 17.0 3.1 98.7 97.1 12.0 12.6 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 17.0 18.9 20.9 3.1 95.4 94.6 14.6 15.1 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 9.4 11.1 16.8 3.3 99.4 96.8 7.3 8.0 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 16.4 19.1 19.9 3.6 100.0 99.0 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 16.1 18.9 17.9 3.4 99.6 98.2 14.1 15.2 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 16.0 18.1 18.6 3.2 99.6 97.6 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 13.9 16.0 17.7 3.3 99.7 97.3 11.8 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 15.7 17.3 17.8 3.4 99.4 98.4 13.3 14.0 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 17.2 18.8 18.9 2.9 98.3 95.4 15.0 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 17.4 18.9 20.6 3.0 96.2 95.7 15.7 16.7 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 16.9 19.3 18.6 3.4 99.6 98.3 14.2 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 17.7 19.1 19.8 2.5 94.0 90.5 14.9 15.6 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 14.6 17.3 16.6 3.1 99.5 97.7 12.4 13.4 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 16.6 19.0 20.8 3.4 97.5 95.9 14.2 14.7 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 10.4 12.5 14.3 3.0 98.8 96.2 8.8 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 16.2 19.1 20.8 3.5 99.6 97.7 13.7 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 16.8 18.7 20.0 2.7 95.6 91.2 13.9 14.6 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 16.5 18.3 21.0 3.7 100.0 97.9 13.6 14.8 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 16.9 18.8 19.0 3.3 99.8 97.8 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 16.5 18.2 19.8 3.0 96.6 95.0 13.8 15.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 14.9 16.8 17.5 3.7 99.1 98.5 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 16.3 19.1 20.1 3.0 95.9 94.6 13.5 14.5 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 15.4 17.4 19.8 3.2 98.2 96.6 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 13.4 15.4 15.9 3.0 99.7 96.7 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 17.3 19.3 21.2 3.4 97.0 96.1 14.5 15.0 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------