***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 71.5 76.1 49.4 132.6 72.8 64.4 24.0 35.8 54.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 50.6 58.4 37.5 108.8 65.4 56.7 30.4 45.9 58.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 59.8 60.4 52.6 137.6 75.4 66.8 32.8 42.0 53.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 83.3 108.0 61.9 163.3 81.5 72.5 33.6 53.1 70.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 64.6 89.4 60.6 167.3 84.5 73.9 30.3 35.8 71.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 74.7 99.6 70.1 168.1 86.6 75.9 40.4 51.0 70.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 43.2 40.1 35.7 104.1 63.0 55.4 22.6 35.0 43.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 111.1 143.2 76.8 186.2 88.9 80.8 55.3 67.6 97.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 64.4 85.5 65.2 169.2 84.4 74.2 24.4 38.2 55.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 88.9 112.5 79.9 180.4 87.1 77.9 41.5 55.7 82.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 64.0 94.5 62.2 180.4 87.6 77.7 26.1 41.7 57.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 93.8 111.1 60.6 187.3 89.3 80.5 38.3 58.4 75.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 53.3 68.2 61.4 182.3 88.8 77.3 25.6 39.8 51.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 98.4 116.9 82.1 170.7 82.2 75.8 50.0 61.0 78.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 51.4 76.0 52.9 159.9 79.1 68.6 16.3 18.5 51.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 49.3 73.9 60.8 177.2 87.5 76.8 28.1 38.5 44.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 50.4 48.5 35.3 103.8 63.0 54.2 34.5 43.5 53.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 84.0 105.4 94.2 186.0 88.9 80.3 46.5 53.5 73.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 55.3 69.0 41.8 117.9 69.0 59.8 33.0 50.0 68.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 67.4 89.1 92.7 180.3 89.9 82.1 41.9 48.5 63.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 66.7 85.6 58.6 156.3 80.3 70.9 32.1 43.0 53.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 60.0 69.5 39.6 113.6 65.9 57.5 40.2 56.5 69.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 58.4 65.5 50.9 136.2 76.4 65.6 32.7 45.8 60.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 67.2 84.1 79.2 175.0 84.1 76.8 42.2 50.1 63.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 61.7 69.6 57.7 143.2 74.6 67.1 24.7 39.4 54.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 58.9 70.0 52.5 183.6 86.5 77.5 20.7 37.0 54.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 65.4 80.1 52.8 132.3 71.8 63.8 26.5 38.4 62.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 65.2 82.8 61.0 167.4 83.3 72.6 23.7 44.0 55.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 100.9 133.9 98.2 184.9 89.8 81.2 57.4 68.1 97.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 43.8 58.8 40.4 113.2 66.6 59.2 25.4 36.7 57.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------