***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.7 23.6 5.9 120.9 77.1 58.8 0.7 5.9 19.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 18.2 31.9 6.0 128.6 78.3 59.7 3.3 14.6 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.3 19.2 6.4 121.2 75.7 57.3 0.7 6.7 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 7.1 14.3 5.7 120.3 74.9 55.4 1.4 5.1 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 7.6 15.9 6.4 133.6 77.3 57.7 1.5 5.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.7 14.4 6.5 123.2 76.9 53.6 0.8 4.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 9.0 23.4 5.9 128.7 78.8 61.4 0.7 5.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 10.4 20.9 7.7 128.4 74.5 54.0 2.5 6.7 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.6 16.3 8.0 137.2 75.1 54.8 1.1 7.9 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.1 20.3 9.2 134.5 74.7 54.8 4.1 8.9 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.9 23.3 5.5 127.5 77.2 57.3 1.8 5.0 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.4 21.4 5.6 129.3 78.6 56.0 1.4 3.4 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.4 17.9 5.9 137.0 80.8 56.8 1.0 6.2 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.0 41.4 11.2 150.0 79.3 59.7 0.8 5.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 3.8 12.0 4.1 106.9 75.7 56.1 0.0 0.6 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.2 14.7 5.3 127.9 79.0 56.0 1.7 4.1 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.5 28.1 6.1 132.2 78.2 59.3 2.9 7.6 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 15.0 31.2 12.4 146.9 76.1 56.5 4.2 10.4 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.3 27.1 6.5 132.6 77.8 59.0 0.6 8.3 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.0 17.0 10.6 132.6 73.8 56.6 5.8 11.6 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.0 27.2 6.7 127.1 77.5 55.2 0.7 3.2 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.1 24.4 7.0 148.4 79.6 58.2 1.7 5.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 9.5 28.4 7.3 134.5 77.7 57.3 0.2 4.8 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.8 21.0 10.4 137.7 76.5 56.9 3.9 10.4 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 5.9 14.7 6.3 122.1 74.7 58.3 0.4 3.6 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.3 14.3 3.9 102.0 77.1 54.6 0.5 5.1 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.0 26.2 6.5 128.1 76.3 58.9 0.3 2.8 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.6 13.1 5.1 117.4 76.2 55.7 0.8 5.8 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.0 39.9 13.0 148.1 76.9 58.7 4.2 15.3 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.3 19.7 6.4 134.9 78.3 59.9 1.2 5.1 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------