***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 1.5 14.9 11.0 129.8 71.7 58.0 0.9 3.1 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.7 13.0 8.4 104.1 74.0 58.3 1.0 4.0 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.0 24.2 11.5 130.5 73.7 57.3 0.5 4.5 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 2.4 22.5 9.4 92.7 67.9 49.2 1.2 5.4 20.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 0.9 16.6 9.2 102.7 71.2 53.6 0.0 2.0 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 2.4 14.8 12.1 103.5 68.6 48.2 1.1 6.3 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.8 16.8 8.5 108.6 72.6 58.5 1.7 4.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.1 24.8 11.3 117.0 71.7 54.1 3.4 11.6 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 0.9 24.2 11.3 122.0 72.6 54.7 0.2 2.0 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.6 30.2 13.7 131.9 72.8 56.4 0.4 5.9 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 1.3 17.9 8.1 105.8 71.5 53.9 0.2 2.9 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 1.0 12.4 7.6 97.4 70.5 50.1 0.0 2.5 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 1.3 10.1 9.0 97.9 69.8 51.5 0.8 2.8 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.0 37.7 16.3 137.2 75.2 58.6 1.9 9.4 31.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.6 13.8 8.7 108.0 71.8 50.4 0.9 7.5 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.0 8.9 8.2 92.6 68.0 48.2 0.5 4.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 11.4 25.4 8.7 103.5 72.0 59.3 2.2 5.9 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 24.1 23.7 17.6 149.9 73.2 54.1 3.0 7.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.6 24.4 9.0 108.9 73.9 58.6 1.9 5.7 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 2.8 12.0 16.1 131.2 69.0 51.2 2.1 6.9 11.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.2 22.0 11.3 130.2 74.9 56.3 0.9 8.6 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 10.8 23.7 9.4 106.4 72.5 60.8 3.8 6.6 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 12.4 21.2 10.5 122.7 74.1 57.8 1.4 8.0 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 23.2 30.8 15.5 146.0 74.9 57.4 0.9 7.7 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.9 17.3 11.3 123.6 73.4 56.9 0.3 10.0 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.7 12.6 6.4 84.1 69.8 48.5 1.6 5.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.0 16.7 11.6 128.3 72.5 57.1 2.8 6.1 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.6 16.0 9.0 94.8 68.5 48.5 2.2 5.6 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 23.3 28.2 18.6 148.0 73.0 56.3 6.7 10.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.1 14.8 9.3 110.7 73.5 58.5 3.2 6.3 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------