***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.3 18.8 12.1 108.4 66.3 49.0 2.1 4.1 18.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.0 10.8 9.7 91.2 64.0 48.4 2.5 6.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.1 12.8 12.7 102.3 67.8 52.0 1.9 7.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 2.1 18.2 11.9 107.5 72.0 49.4 1.0 4.2 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 7.2 18.8 13.0 118.5 73.1 56.2 1.5 3.4 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.8 8.5 13.0 98.4 65.3 51.7 2.9 4.9 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.9 8.4 9.3 90.4 64.8 50.3 1.4 3.6 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.1 12.6 11.6 95.1 63.7 51.6 3.0 8.4 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.4 15.5 11.1 93.6 65.2 49.8 1.0 5.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 8.3 8.1 12.6 96.4 64.6 51.2 1.0 6.0 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.9 14.8 13.2 116.2 72.6 58.1 0.6 3.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.8 17.8 9.7 95.0 66.2 52.2 0.0 3.6 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 2.4 6.8 12.9 125.2 72.7 58.7 0.1 0.7 3.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.5 18.2 14.1 103.7 67.4 53.0 1.7 8.3 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 0.9 15.3 12.4 120.7 76.2 52.3 0.8 1.9 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 4.3 5.9 11.3 105.2 70.1 54.5 0.2 1.8 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.2 10.4 9.2 89.8 65.6 48.4 3.0 4.3 10.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.5 10.8 12.3 85.8 59.1 48.4 1.3 5.3 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.5 14.0 10.7 97.4 65.6 50.1 2.7 7.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.0 8.2 15.5 105.4 64.1 53.7 2.3 3.9 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 6.0 9.5 11.7 99.7 68.0 50.5 1.4 4.9 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.1 8.2 10.7 105.4 66.8 53.7 1.0 4.3 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.6 12.1 11.8 103.2 66.4 51.9 1.3 8.9 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 8.8 13.2 13.1 98.4 65.4 52.0 1.7 6.1 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.6 11.6 13.9 113.1 69.0 52.1 4.2 6.8 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 2.8 6.6 11.9 122.4 72.7 57.6 0.0 0.3 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.8 8.8 12.9 106.4 65.2 48.9 2.7 5.9 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.0 15.0 11.4 106.4 72.5 50.2 0.1 4.4 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 14.6 15.0 14.7 93.7 58.9 50.5 4.4 13.4 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.2 10.3 92.5 64.6 50.5 2.3 5.1 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------