***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 11.3 15.6 20.4 160.4 79.6 68.9 2.2 4.3 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 9.2 15.5 13.4 121.1 74.6 59.3 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 12.8 32.6 22.0 187.0 83.7 73.4 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 31.4 46.6 35.0 293.9 92.7 84.1 2.8 12.3 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 18.6 53.8 32.0 279.9 92.2 84.9 3.9 8.6 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 20.1 47.4 38.5 332.3 94.6 88.2 4.5 8.6 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.1 8.8 12.0 103.9 67.0 54.6 2.4 4.3 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 44.1 66.1 46.1 345.9 95.9 92.1 18.8 22.0 34.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 19.3 57.1 34.7 300.8 93.9 86.8 2.7 4.6 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 39.4 70.6 44.5 312.1 94.9 89.9 7.7 14.8 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 20.7 36.9 35.4 320.7 93.4 88.3 2.8 7.4 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 30.6 54.0 37.7 372.9 95.9 91.7 6.6 13.7 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 19.6 31.9 33.8 334.1 93.1 88.6 3.2 6.9 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 29.5 48.3 40.5 269.2 90.4 84.3 5.5 12.1 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 9.0 34.5 27.7 255.4 89.7 78.4 1.0 4.6 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 19.0 30.3 35.9 341.0 93.7 88.6 5.2 13.0 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 5.8 13.6 11.3 105.5 68.3 52.1 3.0 3.8 13.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 29.1 49.2 51.8 324.8 95.8 90.8 8.4 17.5 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 15.2 20.6 15.7 137.9 77.7 64.0 5.3 7.2 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 27.3 39.3 50.4 316.7 95.3 91.1 7.2 15.1 22.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 19.1 38.9 28.9 245.6 89.4 80.8 3.5 8.7 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.3 12.6 111.5 67.7 54.8 5.4 9.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 17.4 22.5 21.3 178.8 83.0 73.4 3.9 8.8 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 21.0 53.2 40.2 293.3 92.9 85.9 5.8 12.6 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 15.4 20.8 26.2 191.7 83.9 73.1 3.4 6.7 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 14.0 27.8 30.3 401.9 94.2 88.9 3.9 7.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 18.3 26.3 21.7 159.5 79.5 67.4 3.1 6.1 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 16.5 45.1 35.4 304.0 93.3 84.7 1.5 5.8 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 36.6 54.5 51.8 324.2 96.0 91.3 14.3 18.5 30.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.5 14.1 14.5 126.5 75.6 62.3 3.6 7.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------