***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 28.0 28.4 28.6 -1.3 30.4 32.2 28.7 29.1 29.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 27.9 28.1 28.8 -1.2 30.3 31.6 28.4 28.9 29.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 27.6 28.4 28.9 -1.2 32.2 33.8 28.4 29.1 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 21.5 21.8 26.6 -0.7 37.2 39.9 21.7 22.4 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 28.4 28.8 27.0 -1.1 31.2 34.8 28.8 29.7 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 27.1 27.5 24.6 -0.8 36.0 36.9 27.4 28.0 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 27.6 28.1 28.6 -1.2 29.5 30.8 28.3 28.8 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 16.3 16.1 24.8 -1.5 24.6 28.4 16.5 17.1 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 28.0 28.6 27.5 -1.0 34.4 36.8 28.6 29.1 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 27.8 28.0 25.7 -1.1 31.6 34.2 28.1 28.8 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 27.9 27.8 27.0 -1.4 26.4 30.5 28.5 29.0 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 27.3 27.1 26.3 -1.5 23.2 28.6 27.3 28.1 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 28.2 27.7 26.3 -1.3 22.6 30.6 28.7 29.5 30.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 27.4 27.4 26.3 -1.6 22.1 25.5 28.0 28.7 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 29.1 29.7 28.5 -1.0 32.6 36.6 29.7 30.1 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 29.0 28.8 26.7 -1.2 28.2 33.0 29.4 30.4 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 27.4 27.7 28.8 -0.9 32.8 35.2 27.7 28.3 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 26.9 26.9 24.6 -1.3 28.4 30.9 27.3 27.8 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 27.4 27.8 28.9 -1.2 31.6 32.8 27.9 28.7 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 22.4 22.5 22.1 -1.5 23.9 27.2 22.6 23.5 24.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 27.7 28.6 28.2 -1.2 31.2 33.1 28.7 29.3 29.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 27.8 27.7 28.5 -1.0 30.9 34.7 27.9 28.8 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 27.2 28.1 28.8 -1.2 31.9 32.7 28.2 28.7 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 27.1 27.3 26.6 -1.4 26.8 29.1 27.7 28.5 28.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 28.1 28.6 27.1 -1.2 29.3 32.0 28.8 29.7 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 27.8 28.0 26.2 -1.3 24.1 30.8 28.4 28.8 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 27.6 28.1 27.8 -1.2 30.2 31.8 28.2 28.9 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 29.0 29.7 27.3 -0.8 35.9 39.2 29.7 29.9 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 21.9 21.9 23.6 -1.3 26.0 29.2 22.6 23.3 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 27.6 28.0 28.8 -1.2 30.8 32.0 28.0 29.0 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------