***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 31.0 30.7 31.0 0.1 50.9 49.8 28.5 30.7 31.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 30.1 29.8 31.0 0.1 52.8 50.1 29.1 29.6 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 30.6 30.3 31.4 0.3 53.5 51.8 28.3 30.2 31.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 23.8 24.9 29.4 0.6 59.8 55.6 21.5 23.3 25.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.8 31.0 29.5 0.4 56.3 53.0 29.4 30.3 32.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 29.5 29.6 26.7 0.4 56.8 53.7 27.6 29.1 30.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 30.1 29.6 30.8 0.0 52.0 48.8 29.0 29.6 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.8 18.6 27.5 0.0 51.7 48.9 17.3 18.6 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 30.6 31.2 29.7 0.5 57.5 54.0 28.6 30.2 31.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 30.1 30.3 28.2 0.3 55.8 52.1 28.5 29.6 31.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 30.2 29.9 29.3 0.2 53.7 50.7 28.7 29.6 31.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.1 29.2 0.0 51.4 49.0 28.2 29.1 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 30.7 30.4 28.3 0.1 53.0 50.5 29.1 30.2 32.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 30.0 29.1 28.3 -0.4 44.5 45.4 28.2 29.5 31.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 31.4 31.8 30.5 0.5 58.5 54.5 29.6 30.9 32.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 31.0 32.2 29.1 0.4 57.6 52.9 29.6 30.4 32.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 29.6 29.3 30.9 0.2 54.1 51.1 28.1 29.1 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.3 27.3 0.2 54.8 51.0 27.0 29.2 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.6 31.2 0.1 52.4 50.4 28.1 29.2 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 22.6 25.0 24.6 -0.1 51.4 48.6 23.7 24.8 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 30.6 30.7 30.4 0.3 54.4 51.8 28.5 30.2 32.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 27.8 29.5 30.8 0.2 53.5 50.9 28.5 29.3 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 30.0 29.5 31.1 0.0 49.7 49.2 27.7 29.5 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 30.1 30.0 28.8 0.0 51.4 49.5 27.5 29.9 30.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 31.0 31.0 29.3 0.2 54.3 51.2 28.7 30.6 32.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 30.2 30.0 29.0 0.2 54.4 51.4 28.1 29.7 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 30.2 30.0 30.0 0.1 52.2 50.3 28.1 29.8 31.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 31.1 31.7 29.7 0.6 60.0 55.6 29.8 30.5 32.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.2 26.1 0.0 52.8 49.8 22.9 24.1 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 30.4 30.1 31.1 0.1 51.8 50.2 28.8 30.0 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------