***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.2 30.1 0.1 53.7 51.7 26.9 28.9 30.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 29.0 28.5 30.3 0.2 52.5 52.2 27.1 28.4 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 28.9 29.5 30.6 0.3 55.9 53.0 27.2 28.2 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.9 23.1 28.6 0.8 64.4 58.5 21.0 22.2 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 30.1 30.1 28.7 0.5 59.8 56.1 27.8 29.3 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 28.6 29.4 26.2 0.8 63.0 59.4 27.0 28.0 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 29.0 28.5 30.1 0.1 51.5 51.0 26.9 28.4 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 16.1 17.3 26.7 0.2 52.4 53.0 16.7 17.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 27.3 30.0 28.9 0.6 60.7 56.9 27.2 28.9 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 27.3 29.6 27.4 0.5 58.0 55.7 26.7 28.8 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 27.4 29.6 28.5 0.4 56.3 54.6 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 26.8 28.5 28.4 0.2 52.6 53.3 26.5 28.3 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 27.8 29.9 27.6 0.5 56.5 55.6 27.9 29.5 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 28.1 27.2 27.5 -0.3 48.0 47.5 26.8 27.3 30.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 30.6 30.5 29.8 0.7 62.9 57.3 28.8 29.8 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 28.4 30.9 28.3 0.6 60.1 57.2 28.3 30.3 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 28.8 28.6 30.2 0.4 56.5 53.7 26.5 28.1 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.3 28.4 26.5 0.3 54.8 54.0 26.2 27.7 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 28.8 28.3 30.4 0.2 52.9 52.4 26.6 28.1 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.5 23.8 0.1 52.4 52.2 22.3 23.4 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.4 29.8 29.6 0.4 57.6 54.1 27.3 28.7 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 28.8 29.0 30.0 0.3 55.4 52.6 27.2 28.1 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 26.8 28.5 30.3 0.1 52.8 51.4 26.8 27.8 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 28.5 28.5 28.0 0.1 53.7 51.5 26.4 27.7 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.8 28.4 0.3 56.2 53.8 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.4 28.3 0.4 56.6 55.5 27.5 29.0 30.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.1 29.0 29.2 0.2 55.0 52.7 26.7 28.6 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 30.4 30.9 29.0 0.8 64.2 58.8 29.2 29.8 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.8 23.0 25.3 0.2 54.0 52.8 21.7 22.9 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 28.8 28.3 30.3 0.1 51.6 51.8 26.6 28.2 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------