***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 26.4 27.6 28.3 -1.2 34.0 37.6 27.6 29.0 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 26.7 28.4 28.7 -1.0 37.3 39.5 27.9 28.6 29.9 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 26.7 27.8 28.8 -1.0 37.7 39.7 27.6 29.5 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 20.8 21.2 25.9 -1.0 40.6 39.9 21.1 22.3 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 27.7 28.7 26.7 -1.2 37.1 38.7 27.5 29.7 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 26.6 27.4 24.0 -1.1 40.1 38.9 26.8 27.8 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 26.6 28.2 28.5 -1.1 36.7 38.5 27.7 28.8 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 15.6 15.8 24.3 -1.5 33.6 35.9 15.7 17.2 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 27.2 28.2 27.4 -0.9 41.2 41.2 26.9 28.7 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 26.9 28.0 25.4 -1.0 40.1 40.5 26.8 28.6 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 27.3 27.6 26.7 -1.4 34.1 37.2 27.4 29.1 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 26.2 27.1 25.8 -1.6 32.1 35.0 27.1 27.9 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 27.6 27.5 25.9 -1.6 32.5 35.0 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 26.3 27.4 26.5 -1.2 34.8 37.3 27.3 28.9 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 28.9 29.2 28.1 -1.3 33.9 36.6 29.2 30.1 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 28.4 28.4 26.3 -1.4 34.4 36.8 28.4 29.7 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 28.8 28.1 28.8 -0.6 44.4 43.5 27.5 28.4 29.6 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 26.1 26.7 24.4 -1.1 38.1 39.5 26.6 27.7 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 26.3 27.7 28.8 -0.9 38.8 40.6 27.3 28.7 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 21.8 22.1 21.8 -1.4 34.2 36.1 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 27.0 28.7 28.0 -1.1 38.1 38.8 27.2 29.1 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 26.9 28.3 28.5 -0.7 42.0 43.0 27.7 28.9 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 26.7 27.6 28.8 -0.9 39.9 41.5 27.2 29.2 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 26.4 27.2 26.6 -1.1 36.8 38.9 26.8 28.6 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 27.3 28.3 26.8 -1.3 35.4 36.4 28.1 29.5 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 27.4 27.7 25.3 -1.8 31.1 32.7 27.8 28.5 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 26.0 27.4 27.5 -1.2 35.0 36.9 27.3 29.1 29.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 28.7 29.6 26.8 -1.0 39.8 39.3 29.3 30.0 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 21.4 22.1 23.5 -1.1 37.5 39.1 21.8 23.0 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 26.3 27.9 28.7 -1.1 37.4 38.8 27.4 29.0 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------