***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 25.3 24.7 25.0 -4.1 8.1 10.0 26.5 27.7 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 25.7 24.8 25.2 -4.2 8.1 10.3 26.7 27.2 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 25.6 24.7 25.0 -4.4 8.2 10.2 26.6 27.3 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 90 10 0 100 18.4 17.0 22.4 -3.6 8.9 12.6 19.2 21.4 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 94 6 0 100 25.8 24.1 23.2 -4.3 6.7 10.0 26.7 27.8 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 92 8 0 100 24.6 23.8 21.4 -3.5 8.8 13.8 25.3 27.2 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 25.5 24.7 25.0 -4.1 7.8 9.7 26.7 27.4 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 95 5 0 100 13.5 12.5 20.5 -4.8 3.4 7.5 15.0 15.9 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 94 6 0 100 25.9 23.9 24.1 -4.2 7.2 10.1 26.6 27.8 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 92 8 0 100 25.2 23.8 21.7 -4.5 5.6 9.4 26.3 27.5 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 25.5 23.2 23.4 -4.8 5.0 8.7 26.3 27.8 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 95 5 0 100 24.8 22.9 22.0 -4.9 4.2 8.3 25.8 27.0 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 94 6 0 100 25.8 24.8 23.4 -4.4 6.5 10.2 27.0 27.9 29.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 96 4 0 100 25.5 24.4 22.9 -4.7 5.3 7.6 26.2 27.3 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 94 6 0 100 26.6 26.1 25.6 -3.9 8.6 11.9 27.4 28.9 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 94 6 0 100 26.6 24.9 23.2 -4.5 6.1 9.7 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Nis 06700G01 95 5 0 100 25.1 24.6 25.1 -3.7 9.4 11.9 26.0 27.1 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 24.6 22.5 20.3 -4.8 3.9 7.5 25.5 26.4 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 96 4 0 100 25.2 24.3 25.1 -4.2 8.5 10.6 26.0 27.2 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 95 5 0 100 19.9 18.4 18.3 -4.7 2.8 7.2 21.0 22.1 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 94 6 0 100 25.6 24.4 24.6 -4.4 6.8 9.0 26.3 27.9 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 96 4 0 100 25.5 24.8 24.8 -3.9 9.6 11.8 26.5 27.7 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 25.7 25.1 25.0 -4.2 9.4 11.0 26.1 27.4 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 97 3 0 100 25.2 23.7 22.8 -4.8 5.2 7.6 25.9 26.9 28.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 97 3 0 100 25.7 24.7 23.8 -4.2 7.4 9.0 26.5 28.5 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 92 8 0 100 25.5 24.9 22.3 -4.2 8.4 12.1 26.7 27.4 29.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 96 4 0 100 25.4 24.0 24.4 -4.0 7.7 9.3 26.2 27.3 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 91 9 0 100 26.7 25.8 23.8 -3.7 9.3 12.7 27.3 28.9 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 95 5 0 100 19.4 17.5 19.6 -4.7 3.8 7.8 20.5 22.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 96 4 0 100 25.5 24.3 25.2 -4.2 8.7 10.6 26.3 27.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------