***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 16.4 16.8 19.6 0.2 56.2 52.6 15.1 16.2 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 16.1 15.8 19.4 0.1 53.1 50.9 14.7 15.7 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 18.5 18.3 19.9 0.1 54.1 51.0 17.3 18.1 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.3 17.2 0.4 57.5 55.1 12.5 14.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 15.2 14.9 17.0 0.2 52.6 51.7 13.9 14.9 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.8 13.7 15.1 0.2 56.1 53.4 12.5 13.4 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.9 16.8 19.5 0.0 51.2 49.6 15.1 16.6 17.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.6 14.9 0.0 51.0 50.3 8.6 9.5 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.9 17.0 0.2 54.9 52.6 14.8 15.6 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.1 15.5 0.2 54.0 52.1 15.0 15.6 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.3 16.6 0.1 50.3 50.5 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.4 15.7 0.0 49.1 49.5 12.7 13.4 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 13.4 14.7 14.8 0.1 51.5 51.0 13.6 14.6 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.0 16.7 -0.2 43.8 45.7 15.3 16.2 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 17.2 16.9 18.5 0.2 53.7 52.2 16.2 16.8 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 16.2 16.0 15.9 0.2 54.0 52.7 15.1 15.8 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.1 19.3 0.2 54.0 52.4 15.9 16.7 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.2 14.5 0.2 53.0 52.2 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.5 16.2 19.5 0.1 52.9 50.4 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 10.6 10.7 12.3 0.2 53.8 52.7 9.7 10.3 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.0 18.5 0.2 55.1 52.0 14.8 15.7 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.6 19.2 0.2 54.4 52.3 14.7 15.4 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 15.9 15.7 19.3 0.0 50.2 48.1 15.2 15.7 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.0 16.7 0.0 50.5 49.3 15.2 16.0 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.2 18.0 0.3 54.9 53.8 15.0 15.6 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 13.6 14.6 14.7 0.2 53.1 52.9 14.0 14.4 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.6 18.7 0.3 56.0 53.4 14.8 16.0 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.7 17.5 0.3 56.6 54.4 14.1 14.6 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.8 14.0 0.1 52.6 51.6 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.2 19.7 0.1 52.4 50.6 15.1 16.0 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------