***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.7 19.3 0.5 60.8 58.0 15.6 16.0 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 16.1 16.6 19.2 0.4 59.3 57.5 15.3 15.9 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 17.9 18.7 19.7 0.5 58.6 57.8 16.7 17.6 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.5 14.8 17.2 0.8 66.5 62.8 12.0 13.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.2 17.0 0.6 64.1 60.8 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 14.1 13.8 15.2 0.7 67.3 62.9 12.3 13.4 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 16.5 16.7 19.2 0.3 57.6 55.5 15.3 16.3 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.2 14.7 0.3 57.2 56.1 8.5 8.8 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.5 17.1 0.6 63.0 61.3 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.1 15.5 0.5 60.2 59.2 14.4 15.8 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.8 16.0 16.6 0.4 60.8 58.1 13.8 15.6 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.9 15.6 0.3 57.9 55.7 12.6 13.7 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 14.9 15.2 14.8 0.5 60.8 58.8 13.9 14.7 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.5 16.5 16.6 0.2 54.3 53.5 15.6 16.3 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 17.5 17.8 18.5 0.6 64.0 59.5 16.1 17.3 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.5 16.0 0.6 64.3 61.2 15.0 15.6 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 17.1 17.2 19.1 0.5 62.7 58.5 15.7 16.9 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.7 14.4 0.4 59.4 58.4 12.8 14.1 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 16.3 16.5 19.3 0.4 57.8 57.3 15.0 16.1 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.4 12.1 0.4 60.1 58.5 9.1 10.2 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.2 18.4 0.5 61.4 59.0 14.3 15.8 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 15.7 16.0 18.9 0.4 58.6 57.5 15.0 15.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 15.5 15.6 19.1 0.3 55.5 55.4 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.3 16.6 0.3 57.5 56.0 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.7 16.4 17.8 0.6 62.5 59.4 14.7 15.3 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.8 14.8 0.5 61.9 58.9 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.1 18.5 0.5 62.3 58.8 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.3 17.5 0.7 66.4 62.3 13.7 14.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.8 13.8 0.3 58.2 57.1 12.0 12.5 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 16.4 16.4 19.4 0.4 58.9 56.9 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------