***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 14.0 14.5 17.3 -1.3 27.9 31.2 14.6 15.8 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 13.6 14.3 17.3 -1.3 27.5 31.4 15.0 15.6 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 15.9 16.2 17.6 -1.3 27.8 30.3 16.5 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 11.5 11.3 14.9 -1.2 26.6 30.8 11.7 13.3 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 12.4 12.3 15.2 -1.3 25.5 29.0 12.9 14.3 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 11.6 11.1 12.8 -1.2 22.0 27.0 12.1 12.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 14.3 14.5 17.3 -1.3 27.0 30.6 15.0 16.1 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 7.0 6.7 12.4 -1.6 20.1 23.1 7.4 8.3 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 13.9 14.1 15.3 -1.3 26.3 28.2 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 13.9 13.7 13.5 -1.4 23.5 25.7 14.1 15.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 13.8 13.5 14.7 -1.6 19.3 23.3 13.8 14.9 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 11.6 11.3 13.4 -1.7 18.6 22.3 11.9 13.1 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 12.7 12.4 13.3 -1.6 17.7 22.5 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 14.4 14.5 15.0 -1.4 23.9 26.4 14.7 16.2 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 15.2 15.0 16.7 -1.4 20.1 26.4 15.7 16.3 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 14.1 13.7 14.2 -1.5 19.8 24.9 14.1 15.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 15.1 15.7 17.3 -1.1 30.6 33.8 15.9 17.0 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 12.2 11.9 12.7 -1.4 23.5 26.1 12.4 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 14.1 14.6 17.4 -1.2 27.8 31.2 15.0 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 8.2 8.4 10.5 -1.4 20.3 24.6 8.8 9.0 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 13.8 13.5 16.5 -1.3 25.7 28.5 13.8 15.2 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 13.8 14.1 17.3 -1.1 30.4 32.4 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 13.5 13.9 17.2 -1.3 26.3 30.1 14.1 15.2 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 14.3 14.1 15.0 -1.3 24.9 27.2 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 13.9 13.2 16.1 -1.3 27.2 31.3 13.9 15.4 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 12.7 12.9 12.8 -1.4 21.5 26.9 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 13.5 14.1 16.7 -1.2 29.4 32.9 14.4 15.6 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 12.5 12.5 15.4 -1.3 22.0 28.1 13.4 13.8 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 11.3 11.1 11.9 -1.4 21.2 24.6 11.6 12.7 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 14.3 14.6 17.5 -1.3 27.5 31.1 15.2 16.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------