***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 13.6 12.7 16.4 -2.0 12.9 17.7 14.5 15.3 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 86 14 0 100 12.9 12.4 16.2 -2.0 14.3 17.5 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 15.1 14.8 16.7 -1.9 15.0 19.1 15.9 16.6 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 10.5 10.4 14.5 -1.3 21.6 26.0 11.0 12.0 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 12.1 11.8 15.2 -1.4 20.4 25.3 12.8 14.0 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 11.7 12.4 13.3 -0.5 43.1 40.8 11.9 12.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 88 12 0 100 13.6 13.2 16.2 -2.1 13.1 16.7 14.5 15.1 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 6.5 6.6 12.8 -1.0 26.3 30.3 7.2 7.5 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 13.6 13.7 15.7 -1.1 25.4 29.5 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 13.7 13.5 13.8 -0.9 27.6 31.5 13.8 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 13.3 13.4 15.3 -1.1 24.0 29.0 13.9 14.9 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 11.2 11.4 13.9 -1.1 26.6 30.0 11.8 12.9 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 12.8 13.1 14.7 -0.6 39.5 38.5 12.9 14.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 14.2 13.8 15.1 -1.2 24.0 27.8 14.5 15.6 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 15.5 15.7 17.1 -1.0 28.2 31.2 15.8 16.4 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 13.8 14.0 14.9 -1.0 27.0 30.6 14.3 15.5 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 86 14 0 100 14.1 13.8 16.0 -1.9 16.0 18.2 14.7 15.4 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 11.8 11.4 13.0 -1.1 25.8 29.5 12.0 13.4 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 85 15 0 100 13.2 12.8 16.3 -1.9 15.5 18.7 13.9 14.8 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 7.4 8.4 11.2 -1.0 26.7 30.3 8.8 9.4 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 12.9 12.6 16.3 -1.5 18.3 22.5 13.4 14.9 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 87 13 0 100 13.2 12.8 16.2 -1.9 14.7 17.5 13.6 14.7 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 12.9 12.5 16.5 -1.8 17.1 21.0 13.6 14.7 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 13.8 13.6 15.1 -1.3 21.7 25.5 14.5 15.4 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 13.0 12.4 15.6 -1.9 15.2 19.4 14.0 14.9 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 12.7 13.3 13.7 -0.4 44.0 42.8 12.9 13.5 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 12.8 12.1 15.9 -2.0 13.9 18.4 13.5 14.7 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 12.7 13.0 15.5 -1.1 28.1 30.7 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 10.5 11.0 12.3 -1.0 27.5 30.6 11.1 11.9 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 13.4 13.2 16.5 -2.0 14.6 17.9 14.3 14.9 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------