***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 0.0 44.8 105.7 61.6 56.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 49.7 56.8 42.9 101.6 60.6 53.6 30.4 45.9 58.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 46.8 54.4 49.5 120.1 68.1 62.1 32.8 42.0 53.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 81.4 89.7 55.1 143.8 76.1 69.7 33.6 53.1 70.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 61.7 73.7 55.1 138.1 72.9 68.0 30.3 35.8 71.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 72.1 79.7 64.3 142.3 75.5 69.0 40.4 51.0 70.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 43.2 37.1 40.1 94.2 56.3 49.9 22.6 35.0 43.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 106.1 123.9 61.6 154.4 78.5 72.5 55.3 67.6 97.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 46 54 100 57.3 56.0 58.5 139.6 70.4 68.6 24.4 38.2 55.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 81.8 94.5 64.5 143.1 73.3 69.3 41.5 55.7 82.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 59.6 70.7 50.4 149.3 77.6 70.8 26.1 41.7 57.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 90.1 109.1 48.0 156.7 80.1 72.8 38.3 58.4 75.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 51.8 57.9 53.4 147.2 75.8 70.2 25.6 39.8 51.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 89.1 88.3 62.2 128.1 69.5 64.3 50.0 61.0 78.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 54.7 77.0 48.5 156.3 79.5 71.8 16.3 18.5 51.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 48.0 56.0 53.3 153.8 80.0 72.3 28.1 38.5 44.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 51.9 45.0 38.3 90.9 55.8 47.3 34.5 43.5 53.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 76.8 90.8 72.7 137.8 75.9 68.4 46.5 53.5 73.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 54.0 66.9 45.8 109.8 63.4 57.3 33.0 50.0 68.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 63.6 80.6 75.6 146.3 82.4 70.9 41.9 48.5 63.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 48.0 57.6 51.6 130.1 69.0 65.3 32.1 43.0 53.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 60.9 65.5 42.2 98.8 59.5 51.1 40.2 56.5 69.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 49.4 60.9 49.3 119.2 67.0 61.2 32.7 45.8 60.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 63.1 68.6 65.2 137.4 73.6 68.5 42.2 50.1 63.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 45.2 54.6 54.1 115.1 65.7 59.7 24.7 39.4 54.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 57.7 67.7 44.2 164.1 80.8 75.1 20.7 37.0 54.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 45.9 51.1 50.6 104.3 60.1 55.4 26.5 38.4 62.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 64.6 79.0 51.9 154.2 79.6 71.6 23.7 44.0 55.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 94.2 109.7 74.7 141.8 78.5 70.1 57.4 68.1 97.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 42.1 49.1 44.0 103.9 62.1 55.4 25.4 36.7 57.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------