***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.8 65.6 64.6 46.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 7.3 17.1 6.6 76.7 65.0 49.1 3.3 14.6 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.1 13.8 6.0 69.5 66.8 46.9 0.7 6.7 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 2.2 12.7 7.6 97.3 70.8 52.2 1.4 5.1 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.5 14.8 6.9 79.0 68.3 49.3 1.5 5.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.7 12.9 11.3 122.3 75.3 55.7 0.8 4.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.4 10.7 6.4 72.9 61.4 49.2 0.7 5.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.9 15.8 7.1 85.0 64.6 50.3 2.5 6.7 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.7 6.6 68.8 68.0 48.3 1.1 7.9 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.9 13.1 7.4 74.3 63.9 48.4 4.1 8.9 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.5 15.2 6.1 88.2 70.5 51.1 1.8 5.0 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.4 14.3 5.5 90.6 69.3 51.7 1.4 3.4 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.7 13.9 7.7 101.4 71.8 54.5 1.0 6.2 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 2.4 15.0 7.9 79.5 63.1 48.2 0.8 5.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.3 17.4 7.7 136.9 78.4 56.4 0.0 0.6 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 1.9 13.5 7.3 103.5 73.7 54.6 1.7 4.1 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.3 15.1 7.2 86.6 66.3 50.0 2.9 7.6 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 15.0 16.9 8.7 75.3 60.5 48.0 4.2 10.4 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.8 18.0 6.6 76.7 65.8 49.0 0.6 8.3 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.0 14.7 10.0 90.8 60.7 51.3 5.8 11.6 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 1.4 18.8 5.8 67.5 67.1 47.1 0.7 3.2 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.3 11.5 7.8 91.0 67.8 50.3 1.7 5.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.0 13.7 6.4 75.6 64.2 48.7 0.2 4.8 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.1 14.8 7.5 75.7 62.6 48.1 3.9 10.4 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 1.6 13.6 7.8 81.4 67.8 49.6 0.4 3.6 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 7.4 13.1 5.7 109.1 73.6 54.5 0.5 5.1 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.3 11.8 7.5 74.3 65.5 48.4 0.3 2.8 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.7 12.8 7.6 116.6 75.5 54.5 0.8 5.8 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 20.7 27.2 9.1 79.8 60.5 49.1 4.2 15.3 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.3 10.6 6.3 70.9 64.5 47.7 1.2 5.1 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------