***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 10.2 95.3 68.5 52.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.8 9.6 10.3 97.9 65.2 50.6 1.0 4.0 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.5 22.2 11.0 105.1 70.7 54.0 0.5 4.5 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.3 30.9 13.6 126.1 77.1 58.3 1.2 5.4 20.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 0.9 19.2 13.3 125.3 74.3 55.6 0.0 2.0 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.6 20.9 16.6 127.7 71.7 58.7 1.1 6.3 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.0 12.3 10.2 97.7 65.9 50.2 1.7 4.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.7 32.6 14.7 145.6 78.1 59.0 3.4 11.6 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.6 24.2 14.0 130.2 74.2 56.3 0.2 2.0 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.0 34.5 15.5 135.4 76.7 57.2 0.4 5.9 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.2 23.4 12.0 134.3 78.1 58.6 0.2 2.9 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.9 26.4 11.4 143.5 79.3 59.4 0.0 2.5 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 4.5 13.2 13.2 137.0 78.4 59.1 0.8 2.8 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.0 37.1 14.5 117.7 72.5 56.2 1.9 9.4 31.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.3 16.2 11.3 126.2 79.2 58.7 0.9 7.5 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 5.7 10.3 12.7 134.0 74.9 60.2 0.5 4.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.2 9.6 90.9 62.2 49.7 2.2 5.9 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 22.9 28.3 17.7 131.9 75.1 58.0 3.0 7.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.1 18.7 10.6 102.7 66.9 52.0 1.9 5.7 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 15.0 18.4 19.4 145.7 77.6 61.1 2.1 6.9 11.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.1 18.7 11.7 116.0 72.9 54.2 0.9 8.6 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.7 20.9 10.2 99.9 67.7 51.2 3.8 6.6 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.9 14.7 11.4 111.1 68.8 54.2 1.4 8.0 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.1 30.6 14.8 122.4 74.0 56.9 0.9 7.7 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.8 17.1 14.2 117.5 72.4 55.8 0.3 10.0 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 8.8 23.4 10.2 148.4 78.7 60.5 1.6 5.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.9 15.7 12.7 104.6 68.4 53.3 2.8 6.1 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.4 25.8 12.2 124.1 75.9 58.6 2.2 5.6 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 24.1 28.4 18.0 137.7 73.9 60.0 6.7 10.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.4 12.9 10.3 98.1 66.1 51.1 3.2 6.3 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------