***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 8.9 106.4 72.3 52.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.0 13.0 9.0 96.6 67.5 50.1 2.5 6.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.3 15.4 9.8 117.4 71.8 52.4 1.9 7.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.0 19.2 9.5 117.0 75.5 54.4 1.0 4.2 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 1.4 20.3 9.6 120.9 74.3 47.7 1.5 3.4 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 7.2 9.2 12.5 113.3 67.2 56.3 2.9 4.9 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.9 7.8 8.4 88.1 63.5 48.1 1.4 3.6 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 3.7 16.5 11.6 128.7 71.3 52.8 3.0 8.4 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.6 19.5 11.3 132.5 76.0 52.6 1.0 5.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.6 14.3 12.5 127.3 72.2 51.7 1.0 6.0 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 1.5 16.8 9.1 129.9 75.8 53.8 0.6 3.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 1.6 27.6 8.3 130.8 73.7 52.6 0.0 3.6 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 2.6 7.1 10.3 130.4 74.1 57.5 0.1 0.7 3.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.0 17.7 12.5 116.0 66.8 50.0 1.7 8.3 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.6 15.4 8.0 114.6 76.5 58.1 0.8 1.9 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 4.1 9.0 10.0 133.8 74.6 58.0 0.2 1.8 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.2 9.8 8.0 82.5 62.3 45.6 3.0 4.3 10.4 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 2.0 14.0 14.1 117.8 70.3 46.9 1.3 5.3 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.4 15.5 9.4 105.9 68.7 50.7 2.7 7.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 2.1 13.8 16.2 132.2 74.9 54.7 2.3 3.9 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.3 10.4 9.9 128.5 76.7 52.5 1.4 4.9 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.0 7.2 8.4 89.2 63.6 46.2 1.0 4.3 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.7 12.2 9.5 110.9 70.2 48.2 1.3 8.9 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 2.7 14.1 13.0 124.1 70.2 50.4 1.7 6.1 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.2 15.4 9.8 102.2 70.5 51.1 4.2 6.8 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 7.7 14.1 9.2 161.3 79.4 65.5 0.0 0.3 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.9 9.7 9.9 98.9 67.9 51.0 2.7 5.9 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.4 17.5 8.8 118.5 77.0 55.4 0.1 4.4 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.1 18.6 15.6 126.2 72.4 51.9 4.4 13.4 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.2 10.3 9.1 100.6 69.9 51.3 2.3 5.1 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------