***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 0.0 19.9 137.6 75.5 68.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.4 14.7 17.0 123.4 72.4 61.4 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 12.7 21.6 22.7 165.0 80.7 74.2 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 31.0 42.1 24.4 211.4 85.4 80.6 2.8 12.3 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 18.5 26.5 25.4 200.5 84.7 81.1 3.9 8.6 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 18.5 25.3 23.8 202.9 86.8 78.9 4.5 8.6 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.3 7.7 15.2 109.4 65.9 55.8 2.4 4.3 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 43.2 55.2 28.2 224.0 89.3 84.0 18.8 22.0 34.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 19.1 29.2 26.6 204.7 86.9 82.6 2.7 4.6 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 38.1 55.2 29.2 208.1 88.0 82.5 7.7 14.8 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 20.3 30.4 23.2 214.1 87.3 82.3 2.8 7.4 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 29.5 43.0 22.8 223.9 89.2 83.6 6.6 13.7 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 17.0 29.7 22.2 198.7 86.0 79.5 3.2 6.9 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 26.8 37.4 27.4 175.8 83.6 75.7 5.5 12.1 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 9.1 33.8 21.6 228.3 89.3 80.1 1.0 4.6 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 18.6 26.3 23.3 218.7 86.4 81.9 5.2 13.0 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.6 12.8 13.6 99.9 65.1 52.7 3.0 3.8 13.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 27.8 35.4 32.3 203.0 87.0 81.5 8.4 17.5 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 16.0 20.3 19.2 138.1 77.3 66.5 5.3 7.2 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 25.4 33.2 29.9 199.9 84.3 80.2 7.2 15.1 22.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 18.0 26.9 24.1 183.3 83.8 78.6 3.5 8.7 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.9 13.3 15.7 108.8 69.9 57.9 5.4 9.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 17.6 23.2 22.0 156.7 83.4 71.7 3.9 8.8 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 20.1 44.8 29.8 200.4 87.2 80.8 5.8 12.6 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 14.7 18.3 22.2 141.3 76.3 70.0 3.4 6.7 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 13.5 21.5 19.1 207.8 88.0 81.4 3.9 7.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 16.0 17.6 20.5 126.0 72.1 65.6 3.1 6.1 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 16.4 34.0 23.2 237.6 88.2 81.7 1.5 5.8 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 34.4 41.1 32.1 201.7 86.4 81.1 14.3 18.5 30.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 12.8 14.1 18.3 131.4 75.2 64.8 3.6 7.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------