***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 29.0 0.1 52.3 54.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 29.2 29.2 29.1 0.2 57.8 56.5 28.4 28.9 29.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.3 29.1 29.0 0.1 52.5 53.9 28.4 29.1 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 21.5 21.6 26.8 -0.9 31.7 36.2 21.7 22.4 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 28.4 28.9 26.8 -0.9 34.7 37.4 28.8 29.7 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 27.0 27.0 24.1 -1.2 25.3 30.1 27.4 28.0 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.1 28.9 28.9 0.2 55.9 55.3 28.3 28.8 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 16.3 16.4 24.6 -1.1 29.8 33.5 16.5 17.1 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 29.4 28.8 27.2 -0.6 40.0 42.0 28.6 29.1 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 27.8 28.1 25.5 -0.9 35.1 37.8 28.1 28.8 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 27.9 28.6 26.3 -0.8 35.1 37.8 28.5 29.0 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 27.3 27.2 25.9 -1.0 30.0 34.7 27.3 28.1 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 28.2 28.1 25.5 -1.1 27.0 33.3 28.7 29.5 30.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 28.9 28.2 26.6 -0.4 40.4 45.3 28.0 28.7 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 29.2 29.8 27.9 -0.8 35.0 37.7 29.7 30.1 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 28.9 29.0 26.1 -1.0 29.5 34.9 29.4 30.4 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.5 28.7 28.7 0.3 57.3 56.8 27.7 28.3 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 27.0 27.4 24.5 -0.9 34.5 37.3 27.3 27.8 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 28.8 28.8 29.1 0.3 58.1 57.0 27.9 28.7 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 22.5 22.6 22.3 -1.1 32.4 32.5 22.6 23.5 24.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 29.5 28.9 28.2 -0.4 41.6 45.7 28.7 29.3 29.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 29.0 28.8 28.7 0.3 56.6 57.0 27.9 28.8 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 28.9 28.8 28.7 0.1 55.7 55.2 28.2 28.7 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 28.6 28.2 26.6 -0.5 40.1 44.1 27.7 28.5 28.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 29.8 29.4 27.3 -0.4 43.9 46.7 28.8 29.7 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 27.7 28.0 25.3 -1.3 24.3 27.5 28.4 28.8 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 29.1 29.0 28.1 -0.1 50.5 52.3 28.2 28.9 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 28.9 29.5 27.1 -1.1 28.8 33.4 29.7 29.9 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 22.1 22.6 23.5 -0.9 34.6 36.7 22.6 23.3 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 29.2 29.3 29.2 0.2 56.2 56.2 28.0 29.0 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------