***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 0.0 30.4 0.9 66.3 59.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 30.9 30.4 30.3 0.9 62.3 59.4 29.1 29.6 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 31.5 31.1 30.5 1.0 63.4 59.7 28.3 30.2 31.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 21.1 23.2 28.3 -0.2 49.5 49.3 21.5 23.3 25.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 28.4 30.4 28.2 0.1 52.9 51.8 29.4 30.3 32.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 26.5 28.9 25.7 -0.2 47.3 48.9 27.6 29.1 30.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 27.6 30.1 30.1 0.8 59.9 58.0 29.0 29.6 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 16.5 18.7 26.3 0.0 52.7 50.9 17.3 18.6 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 28.4 31.2 28.6 0.4 56.8 54.5 28.6 30.2 31.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 27.6 30.2 27.0 0.2 54.5 52.8 28.5 29.6 31.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 27.5 29.9 27.8 0.2 54.0 52.6 28.7 29.6 31.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 27.1 29.2 27.6 0.1 52.8 51.4 28.2 29.1 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 28.0 30.0 27.0 0.0 48.4 50.3 29.1 30.2 32.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 27.9 30.4 28.0 0.6 57.6 56.6 28.2 29.5 31.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 28.7 30.9 29.1 -0.1 50.0 50.0 29.6 30.9 32.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 28.5 30.3 27.5 0.0 49.6 50.3 29.6 30.4 32.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 30.6 29.6 29.8 0.8 62.3 58.3 28.1 29.1 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 29.5 29.4 26.1 0.2 54.9 53.4 27.0 29.2 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 30.7 30.3 30.5 1.0 63.3 60.2 28.1 29.2 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 25.1 25.0 23.8 -0.1 51.4 50.7 23.7 24.8 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 28.0 31.6 29.7 0.6 60.9 56.6 28.5 30.2 32.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 30.9 30.4 29.8 0.9 63.3 59.4 28.5 29.3 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 31.0 30.3 30.1 1.0 62.4 59.9 27.7 29.5 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 30.2 30.3 28.1 0.6 58.7 56.5 27.5 29.9 30.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 28.2 31.5 28.7 0.5 57.4 55.4 28.7 30.6 32.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 27.8 29.6 27.0 -0.3 46.4 47.4 28.1 29.7 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 31.1 31.1 29.4 0.7 61.5 57.6 28.1 29.8 31.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 28.7 30.4 28.6 -0.3 47.5 48.2 29.8 30.5 32.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 24.6 24.4 25.0 0.2 54.9 53.3 22.9 24.1 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 31.3 30.4 30.5 1.0 61.6 59.6 28.8 30.0 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------