***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 29.4 0.3 55.8 55.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 29.1 29.7 29.5 0.5 60.6 56.6 27.1 28.4 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 28.9 29.5 29.4 0.4 58.6 55.4 27.2 28.2 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 20.6 21.8 27.4 -0.6 41.9 45.3 21.0 22.2 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 27.7 28.6 27.3 -0.5 44.2 46.6 27.8 29.3 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 26.3 27.5 24.8 -0.6 41.4 44.4 27.0 28.0 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.1 29.5 29.3 0.4 58.8 56.3 26.9 28.4 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 16.0 17.1 25.3 -0.5 45.3 45.3 16.7 17.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 27.2 28.5 27.6 -0.2 45.4 49.0 27.2 28.9 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 27.2 28.4 26.0 -0.4 45.7 47.0 26.7 28.8 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 27.5 28.9 26.8 -0.3 46.8 47.5 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 26.6 28.0 26.6 -0.4 47.1 46.2 26.5 28.3 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 27.5 28.7 26.1 -0.5 45.3 45.4 27.9 29.5 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 28.2 28.6 27.0 0.0 54.9 51.5 26.8 27.3 30.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 28.3 29.5 28.3 -0.4 43.7 46.9 28.8 29.8 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 28.2 29.5 26.6 -0.5 46.3 45.7 28.3 30.3 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.9 28.9 29.1 0.4 59.0 56.3 26.5 28.1 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 26.5 27.2 25.0 -0.4 47.3 46.7 26.2 27.7 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 28.8 29.4 29.6 0.5 61.1 57.0 26.6 28.1 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 22.2 22.8 22.8 -0.6 45.1 44.8 22.3 23.4 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.4 28.5 28.6 0.0 48.9 51.6 27.3 28.7 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 28.9 29.5 29.0 0.4 61.1 56.6 27.2 28.1 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 28.6 29.6 29.1 0.4 60.1 56.3 26.8 27.8 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 26.8 28.3 27.0 -0.1 53.1 50.6 26.4 27.7 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 29.9 29.4 27.7 -0.1 50.5 51.9 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 27.4 28.3 26.1 -0.7 42.8 43.2 27.5 29.0 30.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 29.1 29.1 28.4 0.2 55.1 54.7 26.7 28.6 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 28.4 29.4 27.7 -0.6 41.1 44.5 29.2 29.8 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 21.6 22.8 23.9 -0.5 48.5 46.4 21.7 22.9 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 28.8 29.8 29.6 0.5 60.3 56.6 26.6 28.2 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------