***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 0.0 29.4 0.5 61.2 59.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 29.0 29.8 29.5 0.7 63.6 62.0 27.9 28.6 29.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 29.7 29.9 29.4 0.5 61.7 59.8 27.6 29.5 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.1 27.2 -0.7 46.4 44.9 21.1 22.3 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 30.1 29.6 27.1 -0.5 47.8 48.0 27.5 29.7 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 28.2 27.4 24.2 -1.1 40.3 38.2 26.8 27.8 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 30.0 30.1 29.4 0.6 64.5 61.2 27.7 28.8 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.6 17.1 25.1 -0.7 47.2 45.6 15.7 17.2 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.1 29.0 27.5 -0.2 52.9 51.9 26.9 28.7 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.6 26.0 -0.4 50.6 49.1 26.8 28.6 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 29.6 28.9 26.6 -0.4 46.9 48.5 27.4 29.1 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 28.2 27.6 26.2 -0.7 46.5 45.3 27.1 27.9 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 29.4 28.3 25.5 -0.9 42.5 41.4 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 29.1 29.2 27.2 0.2 59.6 56.4 27.3 28.9 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 30.4 29.8 27.9 -0.6 45.7 44.8 29.2 30.1 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 30.2 29.1 26.2 -0.8 43.9 43.3 28.4 29.7 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 28.7 29.3 29.2 0.8 63.8 62.8 27.5 28.4 29.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.1 27.8 25.1 -0.3 53.0 50.0 26.6 27.7 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 28.9 29.0 29.6 0.8 63.6 62.7 27.3 28.7 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.2 22.7 -0.7 50.0 45.7 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 29.4 29.3 28.6 0.1 57.4 54.8 27.2 29.1 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 29.3 29.4 29.2 0.8 64.1 63.3 27.7 28.9 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 29.4 29.5 29.2 0.7 64.1 62.0 27.2 29.2 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 28.9 28.9 27.1 0.1 56.6 55.0 26.8 28.6 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 29.8 29.7 27.7 0.1 56.7 54.7 28.1 29.5 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 29.1 27.9 25.4 -1.3 35.6 35.8 27.8 28.5 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 29.4 29.4 28.4 0.4 60.4 58.2 27.3 29.1 29.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 30.4 29.7 27.3 -0.9 43.7 41.7 29.3 30.0 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.3 23.1 24.0 -0.3 52.8 50.2 21.8 23.0 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 29.3 29.8 29.6 0.7 63.3 61.6 27.4 29.0 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------