***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 26.8 -1.4 32.4 33.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 27.9 26.8 26.9 -1.2 36.9 38.8 26.7 27.2 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 26.2 26.3 26.6 -1.6 30.0 31.2 26.6 27.3 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 18.5 18.2 24.2 -2.3 18.1 20.7 19.2 21.4 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 25.8 25.5 24.4 -2.6 15.1 17.3 26.7 27.8 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 97 3 0 100 24.5 24.0 21.7 -2.7 11.6 12.9 25.3 27.2 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 28.0 26.9 26.9 -1.2 36.0 38.6 26.7 27.4 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 96 4 0 100 13.5 13.0 21.8 -3.1 9.3 12.2 15.0 15.9 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 91 9 0 100 25.9 25.8 25.2 -2.4 16.4 19.3 26.6 27.8 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 95 5 0 100 25.1 24.8 23.0 -2.8 12.5 15.4 26.3 27.5 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 25.5 25.3 23.9 -2.8 14.4 15.8 26.3 27.8 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 95 5 0 100 24.8 24.4 23.0 -3.0 10.9 13.1 25.8 27.0 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 25.8 25.6 23.3 -2.7 14.5 15.3 27.0 27.9 29.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 25.7 25.6 24.3 -2.3 17.5 20.3 26.2 27.3 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 27.0 26.7 26.3 -2.2 19.4 22.7 27.4 28.9 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 26.6 26.6 23.9 -2.6 16.4 17.0 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 27.5 26.6 26.8 -0.9 40.6 42.3 26.0 27.1 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 24.6 24.1 21.8 -2.9 12.6 13.8 25.5 26.4 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 27.8 26.3 26.8 -1.3 36.3 37.1 26.0 27.2 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 95 5 0 100 19.9 19.1 19.7 -2.9 10.2 12.5 21.0 22.1 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 25.9 25.5 26.0 -2.3 20.4 21.4 26.3 27.9 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 28.1 26.8 26.6 -1.0 39.7 40.1 26.5 27.7 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 26.3 25.9 26.3 -1.6 30.1 31.5 26.1 27.4 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 87 13 0 100 25.3 25.3 24.1 -2.4 16.9 18.8 25.9 26.9 28.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 26.3 26.2 25.1 -2.0 25.2 25.0 26.5 28.5 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 25.4 24.9 22.7 -3.0 7.7 12.1 26.7 27.4 29.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 26.0 26.0 26.0 -1.5 31.4 31.5 26.2 27.3 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 90 10 0 100 26.8 26.5 24.9 -2.5 15.6 18.0 27.3 28.9 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 95 5 0 100 19.4 18.8 20.9 -2.8 11.2 13.3 20.5 22.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 26.4 26.4 27.0 -1.3 34.9 37.2 26.3 27.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------