***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9999.0 0.0 18.6 0.1 51.8 55.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 15.7 15.9 18.7 0.2 56.8 58.5 15.0 15.5 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 18.0 18.1 18.6 0.2 56.0 58.4 17.0 17.8 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.9 16.4 -0.5 36.9 36.9 12.8 13.2 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.0 16.3 -0.4 39.0 40.8 13.8 14.2 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.7 14.5 -0.4 37.7 40.8 12.7 13.0 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 16.2 16.2 18.8 0.2 53.8 57.3 15.3 16.1 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 8.8 8.3 14.4 -0.3 40.0 43.3 8.3 8.6 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 15.5 15.3 16.7 -0.2 45.3 46.6 15.0 15.4 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 15.4 15.2 15.1 -0.2 43.4 45.6 15.0 15.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 15.2 14.9 15.9 -0.2 43.3 46.3 14.7 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.1 15.3 -0.3 41.9 44.6 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.0 14.9 -0.2 38.9 44.0 13.9 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 16.2 16.1 16.7 0.0 50.3 51.0 15.5 16.1 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.9 16.5 17.5 -0.5 39.4 39.6 16.0 16.8 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.5 15.6 -0.3 39.2 42.6 15.1 15.7 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 16.6 16.8 18.4 0.3 59.0 59.0 15.9 16.5 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 13.8 13.3 14.3 -0.2 46.8 46.9 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 15.9 15.9 18.7 0.3 58.2 59.5 15.1 15.8 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.8 9.5 12.6 -0.1 45.7 47.7 8.9 9.6 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 15.3 15.1 17.8 -0.1 46.0 48.9 14.8 15.1 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 15.6 15.7 18.3 0.3 58.9 59.6 14.9 15.5 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 15.4 15.5 18.4 0.2 57.3 58.4 14.5 15.3 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 16.0 15.9 16.4 0.0 49.9 51.3 15.1 15.9 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 15.6 15.4 17.0 -0.2 45.8 46.1 14.7 15.5 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 13.6 13.6 14.4 -0.6 27.9 31.7 13.6 14.2 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 15.7 15.6 17.8 0.0 50.6 52.3 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 14.6 14.0 16.8 -0.6 33.7 34.9 13.9 14.4 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 13.1 13.0 13.7 -0.1 49.9 50.0 12.1 13.0 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 16.3 16.2 18.9 0.2 56.2 58.3 15.5 16.2 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------