***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 19.1 0.2 58.7 54.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.2 19.2 0.3 57.3 56.0 14.7 15.7 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.5 18.6 19.1 0.3 57.8 55.8 17.3 18.1 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.9 16.9 -0.4 47.7 46.1 12.5 14.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 13.5 14.8 16.7 -0.2 48.4 47.3 13.9 14.9 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 12.6 13.3 15.1 -0.2 49.1 48.4 12.5 13.4 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 17.0 17.0 19.1 0.2 55.8 54.8 15.1 16.6 17.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.4 9.6 14.9 -0.2 52.2 47.1 8.6 9.5 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 14.9 15.8 17.1 -0.1 53.5 49.0 14.8 15.6 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 14.8 15.7 15.5 -0.2 50.7 47.4 15.0 15.6 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 14.3 15.5 16.4 0.0 54.9 49.8 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 12.5 13.8 15.9 -0.1 57.4 48.8 12.7 13.4 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 13.5 14.8 15.3 -0.1 56.3 48.4 13.6 14.6 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 15.5 16.3 17.1 0.1 53.5 50.7 15.3 16.2 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 16.1 16.9 17.9 -0.2 51.7 48.1 16.2 16.8 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 14.9 16.3 16.1 -0.2 55.7 48.2 15.1 15.8 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.2 18.6 0.2 54.8 55.3 15.9 16.7 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 12.7 14.1 14.7 -0.2 47.8 46.5 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.9 19.2 0.4 59.2 57.0 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.3 13.1 -0.1 49.7 48.4 9.7 10.3 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 14.8 16.1 18.2 0.0 56.1 51.3 14.8 15.7 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.8 16.2 18.6 0.3 57.9 56.2 14.7 15.4 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.5 18.9 0.4 60.7 56.6 15.2 15.7 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 15.3 16.1 16.9 0.0 52.9 50.5 15.2 16.0 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.3 17.5 0.0 55.8 52.5 15.0 15.6 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 13.6 14.2 15.2 -0.3 46.4 45.4 14.0 14.4 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.7 18.2 0.2 57.9 54.4 14.8 16.0 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 13.6 14.6 17.3 -0.4 48.4 45.4 14.1 14.6 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 12.4 13.4 14.1 -0.2 46.3 46.9 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.5 17.3 19.3 0.3 58.4 56.0 15.1 16.0 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------