***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 0.0 18.4 -0.2 53.6 50.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 15.8 15.8 18.6 0.0 56.3 54.5 15.0 15.6 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 18.1 18.0 18.4 0.0 54.5 53.4 16.5 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 11.9 11.8 16.2 -0.9 33.8 36.5 11.7 13.3 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 12.8 13.8 16.0 -0.7 38.9 40.8 12.9 14.3 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.4 14.3 -0.6 38.5 40.4 12.1 12.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 16.3 16.2 18.6 -0.1 53.4 52.7 15.0 16.1 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.1 14.2 -0.5 43.4 44.3 7.4 8.3 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.0 16.4 -0.6 44.0 43.5 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.6 14.8 14.8 -0.5 43.9 43.5 14.1 15.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.2 14.2 15.7 -0.5 42.8 44.7 13.8 14.9 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.3 15.1 -0.5 41.6 43.9 11.9 13.1 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 13.0 13.2 14.5 -0.6 33.9 39.3 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.1 16.3 -0.3 47.9 47.1 14.7 16.2 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 15.5 15.7 17.0 -0.9 34.3 36.4 15.7 16.3 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 14.6 14.4 15.3 -0.6 35.9 39.8 14.1 15.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 17.1 17.0 18.3 0.0 53.1 54.0 15.9 17.0 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.0 13.9 -0.5 44.1 43.7 12.4 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 15.9 16.2 18.6 0.1 58.6 55.0 15.0 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.4 8.9 12.4 -0.3 47.8 46.5 8.8 9.0 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 15.4 15.1 17.5 -0.4 48.1 46.6 13.8 15.2 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 15.4 15.6 18.3 0.1 58.3 55.3 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.5 18.2 0.0 57.7 53.5 14.1 15.2 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.1 16.1 -0.3 48.4 47.1 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.4 16.8 -0.5 49.9 44.6 13.9 15.4 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 13.0 13.1 14.2 -1.0 27.9 31.6 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.8 17.6 -0.3 53.6 48.0 14.4 15.6 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 12.8 13.2 16.4 -1.0 30.4 33.6 13.4 13.8 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.0 12.6 13.4 -0.3 48.4 46.7 11.6 12.7 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 16.4 16.7 18.7 0.0 56.8 54.3 15.2 16.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------