***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 9999.0 0.0 17.8 -0.2 48.6 49.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 14.8 15.4 17.9 0.0 56.4 55.3 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 16.9 16.8 17.9 -0.1 53.8 53.0 15.9 16.6 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 10.9 10.9 15.5 -0.7 32.7 37.2 11.0 12.0 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 12.7 13.2 15.6 -0.7 36.4 38.5 12.8 14.0 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.9 11.9 13.5 -0.6 37.6 38.5 11.9 12.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 15.3 15.3 18.1 0.1 56.2 55.8 14.5 15.1 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 7.7 7.4 13.6 -0.4 44.1 46.1 7.2 7.5 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 15.2 14.9 16.3 -0.4 48.5 46.0 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 15.3 15.1 14.6 -0.2 49.6 49.4 13.8 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 15.1 14.6 15.3 -0.5 43.6 44.8 13.9 14.9 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 13.0 12.4 14.3 -0.5 43.5 44.6 11.8 12.9 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.4 13.9 14.4 -0.3 44.4 44.4 12.9 14.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 15.9 15.6 16.2 -0.2 50.3 49.5 14.5 15.6 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.0 17.2 -0.7 35.0 36.9 15.8 16.4 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 15.8 14.7 15.0 -0.5 42.4 42.7 14.3 15.5 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 15.7 15.8 17.8 0.2 58.9 58.2 14.7 15.4 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 13.6 13.5 13.8 0.0 53.3 52.8 12.0 13.4 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 15.0 15.0 17.8 0.0 55.8 54.1 13.9 14.8 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 9.5 9.7 11.7 0.0 54.9 53.5 8.8 9.4 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 15.1 14.7 17.2 -0.5 43.4 44.5 13.4 14.9 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 14.9 15.1 17.7 0.1 58.5 56.0 13.6 14.7 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 14.9 14.8 17.5 -0.1 53.3 51.5 13.6 14.7 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 15.6 15.5 16.0 -0.1 51.2 51.2 14.5 15.4 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 13.7 14.1 16.4 -0.7 34.5 37.7 14.0 14.9 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 12.6 12.7 13.3 -0.9 27.9 30.0 12.9 13.5 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 14.9 14.3 17.0 -0.4 44.0 45.0 13.5 14.7 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 13.0 13.2 16.2 -0.8 32.3 35.4 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 12.1 12.6 13.3 0.2 58.3 57.2 11.1 11.9 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 15.2 15.4 18.1 0.0 54.7 54.2 14.3 14.9 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------